{"open":[{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:2133718","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-united-left-primary-winner","why":"The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled and no official cancellation announcement has been made, making cancellation less likely but still possible given political unce","hash":"4fb7d6434a727d276a513fae097c35475dab067c31d63bd9b00dfa1535c89de8","type":"poly_pol","field":"policy","title":"Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791742058834,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791745658834,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791738461083},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:5167155","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-october-2026","why":"Given the long time horizon to October 2026 and current patterns of Russian targeting, the probability of a specific strike on Kyiv on that exact date is low but not negligible.","hash":"d4f36354e772b5a7afa129bc91c9eff1fcf243bf24dcb8882cb0ba4be2f5819c","type":"poly_pol","field":"policy","title":"Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791954458889,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791958058889,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791950864637},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5205160","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt","why":"No base rate data; market price unavailable; 71.9 hours to end means no time decay; volume moderate; no momentum or price signals to update from base 50%.","hash":"3088b99ba8d0671cc69481503d80f3526baecdd85ebe70c45d2e6a7037cb1230","type":"poly","field":"markets","title":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792040859616,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792044459616,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792037265385},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:1822537","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner","why":"Incumbent or well-known candidates often face challenges in local elections, and with over three years until the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, uncertainty and potential competit","hash":"24b120e6ea362db7f8bf3ad42080560550790fc447549672f9a3c8c2ba122dea","type":"poly_pol","field":"policy","title":"Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792040859616,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1792044459616,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792037265441},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"ust10y:2026-10-14","gen":52,"url":"https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve","why":"Base rate 48%, recent 1d change -2bp, 5d change -8bp, 20d change +19bp, no sustained momentum over 3 hours, up share 51.2%, unchanged 6.4%, so probability near base rate.","hash":"21f2048d8d138bff81df70c651a4f395df00aa53443e4191db1c5e551201a7ec","type":"ust10y","field":"markets","title":"Will the next 10-year Treasury yield Treasury publishes after Oct 14 be above 5.19%?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792012060294,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"10-year Treasury yield","resolveAt":1792044460294,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792008465444},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5459792","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-16-2026","why":"No historical base rate for this poly market type, so base rate is 50%; no price or momentum data from Polymarket price given; 26.9 hours remain, so no time decay; no strong signal","hash":"5c3b8ecef799527deed4048c7e2cf749a60951e78b46efdf39514b8a8ee337d7","type":"poly","field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792073259767,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792076859767,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792069663733},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5459797","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-16-2026","why":"No base rate history; market price not shown; 24.9 hours left; volume moderate; no price or momentum data to update; lean to base rate 50%.","hash":"e3cba2512e71350c2f97bc31b1ddb46d0ac23efe563f074314d155d17c152a3e","type":"poly","field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792080459321,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792084059321,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792076864361},{"p":0.15,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092415","id":"50092415","gen":53,"url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/container-ship-sinks-strait-hormuz-as-iran-war-attacks.html","why":"Points (32) and comments (3) are low for age (46 minutes), unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"e1cb148c1393db7f58e28c62cd61bb78374b18c689ae7c36f47671db38c829c9","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Container ship sinks in Strait of Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks","domain":"cnbc.com","scoreAt":32,"closesAt":1792008459120,"postedAt":1792002044000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792088444000,"commentsAt":3,"committedAt":1792004859120},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092423","id":"50092423","gen":53,"url":"https://oxide.computer/blog/voxel-labs","why":"Low points and no comments on a niche domain with story older than 90 minutes, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"a700538f8d08dc191c960db6a0e2dc75c58e4eb5a28fca83ff5af2807cc79ad6","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Virtual Oxide Labs: Emulating a Full Oxide Rack","domain":"oxide.computer","scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1792012060268,"postedAt":1792002074000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792088474000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792008460268},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092470","id":"50092470","gen":53,"url":"https://petal.live/","why":"Points and comments are low and story is older than 90 minutes, making reaching 100 points unlikely.","hash":"f95f851654eed240c55d5e4aeeefc3f18353920abf5c237ad7188f1682bcde22","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Show HN: Petal, open-source CoScreen/ScreenHero finally free","domain":"petal.live","scoreAt":38,"closesAt":1792012060245,"postedAt":1792002194000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792088594000,"commentsAt":6,"committedAt":1792008460245},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50092470","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092470","why":"Points (103) and comments (25) are moderate but front page rank (13) is low, reducing likelihood of reaching 300 points.","hash":"2528ff444cdc560e08927935a54d022213701972e602b1ab51a7dfc5efd4a191","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Show HN: Petal, open-source CoScreen/ScreenHero finally free\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792026458910,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792088594000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792022863322},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092528","id":"50092528","gen":53,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vyzla9mx4g","why":"Old story with low points and no comments, unlikely to gain traction.","hash":"a1c53d69cd5d22c7e66fbfcf682faeb9d901d6720f3afec02d73e135b936a1c1","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"KDE: The Documentary – The Story of Free Software Underdogs","domain":"youtube.com","scoreAt":8,"closesAt":1792015659135,"postedAt":1792002364000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792088764000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792012059135},{"p":0.9,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092664","id":"50092664","gen":53,"url":"https://startupfortune.com/banks-are-now-trying-to-offload-the-ai-data-center-debt-they-just-underwrote/","why":"Points exceed 100 with solid comments on a startup-focused domain, indicating high chance of reaching 100 points.","hash":"56fe1cae2eddf474421ce844ffc4f3fcb8e5f661f7239b3934bed593b623c6f6","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Banks are now trying to offload the AI data center debt they just underwrote","domain":"startupfortune.com","scoreAt":110,"closesAt":1792012060218,"postedAt":1792002772000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792089172000,"commentsAt":72,"committedAt":1792008460218},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50092664","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092664","why":"Moderate front-page rank (8) and good points (110) with many comments (72) at 95 minutes suggest possible but less certain growth to 300 points.","hash":"cc3c6d69d272f643b4c2a75f44923eb79cd43d795c2f6c11cd055b013d2c3c3e","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Banks are now trying to offload the AI data center debt they just underwrote\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792012060294,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792089172000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792008465485},{"p":0.94,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092730","id":"50092730","gen":53,"url":"https://dpa-international.com/politics/urn:newsml:dpa.com:20090101:261014-930-839530/","why":"High points and comments on a credible news domain strongly suggest it will reach 100 points.","hash":"7a4b6f6293c434d1243380bd3450197b2881a92d755cc202574ed538bd166056","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Fire at Starlink site in Bulgaria after suspected sabotage in Poland","domain":"dpa-international.com","scoreAt":140,"closesAt":1792012060206,"postedAt":1792003041000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792089441000,"commentsAt":80,"committedAt":1792008460206},{"p":0.72,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50092730","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092730","why":"Strong front-page rank (3) with high points (140) and many comments (80) at 90 minutes indicates likely growth to 300 points.","hash":"902c160901c701d606cc0376652e02128ed3637644f7d67544a4d14260561b9c","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Fire at Starlink site in Bulgaria after suspected sabotage in Poland\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792012060294,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792089441000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792008465471},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092847","id":"50092847","gen":53,"url":"https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/how-the-military-will-hack-the-election","why":"Points well above 100 with strong comments and credible domain indicate high likelihood of reaching 100 points.","hash":"abd6581c1e7fb59de382051143fae8f6eab869bf8cc0eff34cbae57830193574","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"How the Military Will Hack the Election","domain":"kenklippenstein.com","scoreAt":144,"closesAt":1792012060182,"postedAt":1792003437000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792089837000,"commentsAt":65,"committedAt":1792008460182},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50092941","id":"50092941","gen":53,"url":"https://surrealdb.com/agent-memory","why":"Very low points and no comments at over 130 minutes, no momentum.","hash":"ccd3f9d413d657f591aae7defe0f89ffe551d59a8552fffbf8f122d83e3d207d","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"SurrealDB Agent Memory: 77% on Beam, Alternative to Mem0 / Honcho / Cognee","domain":"surrealdb.com","scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1792015659173,"postedAt":1792003757000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792090157000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792012059173},{"p":0.3,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093180","id":"50093180","gen":53,"url":"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10/13/suicide-rates-highest-ever-among-middle-aged-men/","why":"Moderate points and comments but below threshold and older than 60 minutes, so moderate chance.","hash":"bf07ab74fd25c55babecfc311a0915e9a6eec9983d3219f0ba2b193dc412566f","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Suicide rates highest ever among middle-aged men","domain":"telegraph.co.uk","scoreAt":51,"closesAt":1792012060232,"postedAt":1792004638000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792091038000,"commentsAt":12,"committedAt":1792008460232},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50093180","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093180","why":"Despite the story's age and moderate front page rank, high points and comments indicate strong engagement, but points are only halfway to 300 and age is over 3 hours, so moderate c","hash":"b2a52393b8e6e519071d4197f3048dc1663057459a2675929058659a05bef3a9","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Suicide rates highest ever among middle-aged men\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792019258930,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792091038000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792015660934},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T19","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 49% but current price is slightly below reference with a small negative intrahour move, typical daily volatility suggests threshold is close; momentum is weakly nega","hash":"dbe8a11a7e82f619fd4d1c9d6ee90367b96e2011b15b8fc28c9f165be59d9714","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,621.18 on Coinbase at 19:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792005759204,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792091100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792004861380},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093244","id":"50093244","gen":53,"url":"https://www.neowin.net/news/epic-wants-you-to-ditch-steam-for-its-new-faster-vibe-coded-games-launcher/","why":"Low points despite moderate comments and age over 100 minutes, no momentum.","hash":"096d4c49f1b61e5a3c26a3b656a9cbe765d0794bbfcd9db2210a47bdcdc6ad78","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Epic Games' new vibe-coded launcher is 46% faster than Steam","domain":"neowin.net","scoreAt":7,"closesAt":1792015659147,"postedAt":1792004875000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792091275000,"commentsAt":11,"committedAt":1792012059147},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093298","id":"50093298","gen":53,"url":"https://www.dentaleconomics.com/macro-op-ed/industry-news/news/55341670/how-does-private-equity-ownership-really-affect-dental-practices","why":"Very low points and no comments on a niche domain, very unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"6560c667f2ea643129600ba04ad7ca4570f0a54284745bb161863d41b404a383","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Private equity ownership affects dental practices","domain":"dentaleconomics.com","scoreAt":11,"closesAt":1792012060256,"postedAt":1792005085000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792091485000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792008460256},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093442","id":"50093442","gen":53,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nOXGYxHVFI","why":"Low points and no comments at over 100 minutes, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"3567d1d30bb561d0756e0e183aa7a9a0ce1abdd21d9a50722ec3f5f126d15e59","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Hyperland (Douglas Adams/BBC, 1990) [video]","domain":"youtube.com","scoreAt":7,"closesAt":1792015659162,"postedAt":1792005552000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792091952000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792012059162},{"p":0.99,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093568","id":"50093568","gen":53,"url":"https://jjmaxwell4.com/writing/things-to-know-when-you-get-cancer/","why":"Points far exceed 100 with strong comments and age over 90 minutes, indicating clear success.","hash":"f30b3b7c6e1a77d3bdd7bd466e232ed52e1df327ffd04045e4c9a5209b17ca96","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Things to know if you get cancer in 2026","domain":"jjmaxwell4.com","scoreAt":284,"closesAt":1792015659086,"postedAt":1792005990000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792092390000,"commentsAt":50,"committedAt":1792012059086},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093612","id":"50093612","gen":53,"url":"https://nytpu.com/gemlog/2026-03-18","why":"Points are low and comments moderate for age near 100 minutes, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"feccf6632c22e990a417a9db63cc6a0b28bdca85b4c2ef4ef34d74655c1c17ee","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Fancy Curl Sites","domain":"nytpu.com","scoreAt":25,"closesAt":1792015659098,"postedAt":1792006152000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792092552000,"commentsAt":6,"committedAt":1792012059098},{"p":0.22,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50093612","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093612","why":"Lower points (76) and front page rank 11 with moderate comments at 14, plus older age, suggest limited growth to 300 points.","hash":"c7c47853de93401c2778624072027023eeaa27d00b3ef3b594699f6d79c92fc1","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Fancy Curl Sites\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792030059093,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792092552000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792026463599},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50093857","id":"50093857","gen":53,"url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/anthropic-mythos-bank-of-america-hiring-cost.html","why":"Points and comments are low at under 90 minutes, with a non-premium domain, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"51e8e8583ab5314d6af5b38b4a3324ddb12344f61eba2541a68b574eea9764c3","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Bank of America hired 1000 contractors to patch software flaws exposed by Mythos","domain":"cnbc.com","scoreAt":13,"closesAt":1792015659110,"postedAt":1792006859000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792093259000,"commentsAt":4,"committedAt":1792012059110},{"p":0.49,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T20","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 48.5%, spot slightly above reference (+0.07%), typical daily move 1.66%, threshold close to spot, no strong momentum, so probability near base rate.","hash":"bb2bebca08dd7651c6af126a07f2fe457eeea04a60c590df5e5ae4734c98de1c","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,726.97 on Coinbase at 20:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792009360294,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792094700000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792008465432},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5459772","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-above-on-october-16-2026","why":"No historical base rate; market price not shown; 21.9 hours remain; 24h price change mild positive; no strong signals; forecast remains at neutral 50% base rate.","hash":"4b7666420be2a2eee77844203e841dee12d80ec6c3e891f32c37fd82308f8676","type":"poly","field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792091260313,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792094860313,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792087664666},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094361","id":"50094361","gen":53,"url":"https://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-defender-now-supports-linux-desktops/","why":"Points and comments are very low at under 60 minutes, no momentum and niche domain.","hash":"f490eeae7699ef19a86a448a34257e0d40f77d3c73e1a73d92a8a6f873c26f97","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Microsoft Defender now supports Linux desktops","domain":"neowin.net","scoreAt":8,"closesAt":1792015659124,"postedAt":1792008588000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792094988000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792012059124},{"p":0.92,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094673","id":"50094673","gen":53,"url":"https://blog.cloudflare.com/yandex-outage/","why":"Points over 130 and many comments at nearly 100 minutes strongly predict reaching 100 points.","hash":"2d700e9d160f3ccb5d7669e037c741daa61148c813bbb35461790e3e389d373f","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Yandex outage: data shows that instead of going dark, malicious bots moved","domain":"blog.cloudflare.com","scoreAt":131,"closesAt":1792019258844,"postedAt":1792009753000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792096153000,"commentsAt":44,"committedAt":1792015658844},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50094673","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094673","why":"The story has strong points (168) and comments (55) at 158 minutes with a front page rank of 16, indicating solid engagement though rank is beyond 10, so moderate boost applied.","hash":"0b2d2f4a85943536368b42fb965bd2dc80681351a28f715da7a4e3620a5c4a0f","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Yandex outage: data shows that instead of going dark, malicious bots moved\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022860277,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792096153000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792019262556},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094694","id":"50094694","gen":53,"url":"https://sunshowers.io/posts/anthropic-mononoke/","why":"Points well above 100 with strong comments and age over 90 minutes indicate high likelihood.","hash":"a2f436636be2a29e95568232ac6e79ead914a599ec1b09ab370c2d965af80ca9","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Anthropic's Scion is heavily inspired by Mononoke","domain":"sunshowers.io","scoreAt":154,"closesAt":1792019258832,"postedAt":1792009854000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792096254000,"commentsAt":49,"committedAt":1792015658832},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50094694","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094694","why":"Front page rank is good (8) with solid points and comments at under 2 hours old, suggesting momentum likely to continue toward 300 points.","hash":"a200c064789b363fc24512c3f2bc9757b8cc7c6ba84cf937118d7f3d7bd81c7a","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Anthropic's Scion is heavily inspired by Mononoke\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792019258930,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792096254000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792015660945},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094903","id":"50094903","gen":53,"url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/openai-alfozan-recording-raed-ventures.html","why":"Old story with low points and zero comments, no recent growth, forecast discounted.","hash":"6114c613808ff546d4b90857ed40fd94416774a481a84d10536320faded1b8c1","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"OpenAI bugging suspect booked one-way ticket to Saudi Arabia","domain":"cnbc.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1792022860229,"postedAt":1792010564000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792096964000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792019260229},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094910","id":"50094910","gen":53,"url":"https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-starlink-access-restricted-as-musk-says-zelensky-has-gone-too-far-12565652","why":"Old story with low points and low comments on a credible domain, forecast discounted.","hash":"2c3437c6431c7b5ce30fc3a327f610403ff1ffe413be1094dd96165f90b1449e","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Ukraine Starlink Access Restricted as Musk Says Zelensky 'Has Gone Too Far'","domain":"newsweek.com","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1792022860263,"postedAt":1792010584000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792096984000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1792019260263},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094948","id":"50094948","gen":53,"url":"https://www.theregister.com/offbeat/2026/10/14/leap-seconds-face-judgment-day-as-time-lords-prepare-to-vote/5303082","why":"Old story with low points and zero comments, no recent growth, forecast discounted.","hash":"62661575f400c86ad014ad02f5de0a5e00f9ab9906f500390c4d6782525cfd29","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Leap seconds face judgment day as time lords prepare to vote","domain":"theregister.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1792022860214,"postedAt":1792010675000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792097075000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792019260214},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094972","id":"50094972","gen":53,"url":"https://www.economist.com/business/2026/10/13/elon-musks-foundation-is-opaque-miserly-and-self-serving","why":"Low points and no comments at 81 minutes on a credible domain suggest low chance.","hash":"4fd2843009b9b14b0b692111cd379438685b8f9ead2560779f9408f8c528314c","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Elon Musk's foundation is opaque, miserly and self-serving","domain":"economist.com","scoreAt":15,"closesAt":1792019258893,"postedAt":1792010794000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792097194000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792015658893},{"p":0.88,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50094994","id":"50094994","gen":53,"url":"https://anoma.ly/notes/opencode-2-0/","why":"Points just over 100 with solid comments and under 90 minutes age suggest it will reach 100 points.","hash":"70abe1651a633b6738ac67fee9a136ab3c24d9969813fc9281be3d8f2fe321b3","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"OpenCode 2.0","domain":"anoma.ly","scoreAt":102,"closesAt":1792019258857,"postedAt":1792010904000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792097304000,"commentsAt":29,"committedAt":1792015658857},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095034","id":"50095034","gen":53,"url":"https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/oct/14/sally-rooney-says-she-can-no-longer-sell-books-in-the-uk-because-of-palestine-action-support","why":"Low points and comments at 75 minutes with a reputable domain but weak engagement.","hash":"1f24ccc4e4bac10f192ccacc68ff91db1266bd512ed162c65c80cb855c728831","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Sally Rooney can no longer sell books in UK due to Palestine Action support","domain":"theguardian.com","scoreAt":19,"closesAt":1792019258880,"postedAt":1792011099000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792097499000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1792015658880},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095200","id":"50095200","gen":53,"url":"https://abelhelton.gumroad.com/l/vantex","why":"Old story with low points and zero comments, no recent growth, forecast discounted.","hash":"2d894c87cc281eb9332a478cf7fc33f1ee22c89c5578b84e0592e7daeb67aee4","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Day Trading app build polished dark sleek for cheap FULL OWNERSHIP","domain":"abelhelton.gumroad.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1792022860200,"postedAt":1792011695000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792098095000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792019260200},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T21","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 48.3%, but current price is slightly below reference and has moved down 0.08% this hour with typical daily volatility of 1.66%, placing the threshold less than 0.5 exp","hash":"f0a1493101a22354f70027ba0ff846b2d6b366b9f968ca81134dd122984ad97b","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,676.72 on Coinbase at 21:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792012959185,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792098300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792012060894},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095323","id":"50095323","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095323","why":"Very low points and comments at nearly 60 minutes indicate very low chance.","hash":"f49a0c7b1d7fefa360f7d89de35d4a3025af77729116f3ac8be9dcbc1b27b4ea","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Tell HN: Don't mass spam employers with LLM generated emails","domain":null,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1792019258904,"postedAt":1792012164000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792098564000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1792015658904},{"p":0.3,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095353","id":"50095353","gen":53,"url":"https://typesafe.ai/blog/jev-1-14","why":"Points at 63 and comments at 22 with moderate age indicate moderate chance but below threshold.","hash":"2f6193e93fc6a9e5786ce113ebffef92d89272ee0144a7373340a3776e34ef37","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"We’re releasing Jev 1.14.0 along with experimental features for dreamers","domain":"typesafe.ai","scoreAt":63,"closesAt":1792019258869,"postedAt":1792012263000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792098663000,"commentsAt":22,"committedAt":1792015658869},{"p":0.85,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50095353","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095353","why":"Strong front page rank (3), high points (143) well above age-based threshold, and high comments indicate strong momentum toward 300 points.","hash":"a2b0153af29e6ba81d20b98050f8f8a66b0e6fb16600f3066d57d33b110226c2","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"We’re releasing Jev 1.14.0 along with experimental features for dreamers\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792026458910,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792098663000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792022863310},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T81749.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 46.6%, threshold very close to spot (-0.04%), expected move to fix 1.83%, recent 24h change negative but within typical volatility, fresh spot price, so probability near ","hash":"cee977646797e4833772764f0218f04bbe31a549a35c643bbe137483b167b571","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,750 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792009360294,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792008465405},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT1517-T2419.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate 50%, threshold 0.34% below spot, expected move to fix 2.8%, recent 24h change negative but within typical volatility, fresh spot price, so probability near base rate.","hash":"2f8b11e4116b8e73d27b90f8a9424fdb936d34c249c739a5d49683af4d5957ad","type":"kalshi_eth","field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,420 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792009360294,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792008465420},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T81499.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 41.8%; threshold is slightly below spot by 0.066%, well within the expected move of 1.63%, indicating a close to coin flip scenario; recent 24h price change is negativ","hash":"e5816ed6abd5b4ae96c5996967c5623d67f81355b72b62b4d505108e9ede39da","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020160277,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792019262529},{"p":0.39,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T81249.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 41.8%, threshold 0.187% above spot but well within 1 expected move (1.17%), recent 24h price down 3%, momentum negative but below adjustment cap; reference price fresh wi","hash":"13e93c0b6788664f72ca03750a8586ae636b22252ce5b6c9e0e0a1b2e453e80d","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,250 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792034559471,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792033665136},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT1517-T2379.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate 50%, threshold 0.681% above spot but within expected move of 1.88%, recent 24h price down 5.86%, negative momentum sustained; reference price fresh, so downward adjustmen","hash":"0276b0108d6d9e356017c4001cfe9e601f488fdbe21c77e31827505618fed178","type":"kalshi_eth","field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,380 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792034559471,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792033665155},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T80999.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 41.8%; threshold is 0.19% above spot, well within 0.5 expected moves (1.15%), so near coin flip; slight negative 24h momentum; reference price fresh; 16.9 hours to fix","hash":"04012e109c84edea8e5b1673d79f49131d9cfdd302e1d3ab9161935fec307f08","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,000 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792038159616,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792037265357},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T80499.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 41.8%, threshold very close to spot with a gap of -0.034% well within the expected move of 1.34%, mild downward 24h momentum but no strong signal, fresh spot price within","hash":"592c831c7e24292a643023863a550f3d1ade15bae7e130a0bf2a0379377a07d9","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792045358735,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792044460925},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT1517-T2339.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate 50%, threshold slightly below spot by -0.237% but within expected move of 1.88%, recent 24h downward momentum of -6.27% is significant but not sustained over 3 hours, fre","hash":"d809fc78c191b65c731b6a2f6c295d89e5383fdc7864bf8e77cc4f2c8a19e3d2","type":"kalshi_eth","field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,340 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792045358735,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792044460982},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T80749.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 41.8%, threshold is 0.067% below spot, within 0.06 expected moves, recent 24h change is -3.1%, momentum is negative but below 3-hour sustained threshold, reference is ","hash":"f739ad9b8691bb353d6c3494dd6b4dc09f3183de0c3b4b9b1ce27947ac7bb781","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,750 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792063359790,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792062464967},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T81999.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 41.8%; threshold is 0.068% above spot with 5.9 hours left, about 0.57 expected hourly moves away, near coin flip; 24h change positive but small; reference price fresh;","hash":"cb600d4c1ebf9dc72fcdf4660fdc601a83c1b957b94699017eab5a2f344beb9b","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $82,000 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792077759321,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792076864328},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T82499.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Bitcoin's threshold is 0.13% above spot, about 0.12 expected moves away with 4.9 hours left; recent 24h change is positive but below momentum threshold, so probability is slightly ","hash":"009043b8edf82add90dd275a0ada3d50dba3eddfd99758b19e3045368c1cf19e","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $82,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792081360893,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792080467297},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT1517-T2459.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Ether's threshold is 0.77% above spot, about 0.51 expected moves away with 4.9 hours left; recent 24h change is slightly negative and no strong momentum, so probability remains at ","hash":"43681c81095202af72c307247e24f32a240c069d513214aaa601af19b357f564","type":"kalshi_eth","field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,460 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792081360893,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792080467313},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T82249.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 41.8%; threshold is slightly above spot by 0.03%, less than the expected move of 0.85%, with mild positive 24h momentum; reference price is fresh and 2.9 hours remain,","hash":"61526a99e55802e9c0e779f1e49d0ac659787de33a16bd778f2a3a44d718c2aa","type":"kalshi_btc","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $82,250 at 5pm ET on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792088560313,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792098900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792087664641},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095485","id":"50095485","gen":53,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWmG1vvHRm4","why":"Old story with very low engagement and video content unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"a39283f129e96619031ccd357cb7414d2f6497bbf00a08ce1314313aa88131e8","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Well... what if they are actually Nazis? [video]","domain":"youtube.com","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1792026458896,"postedAt":1792012793000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792099193000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1792022858896},{"p":0.01,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50095545","id":"50095545","gen":53,"url":"https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/1011500/openai-state-lawsuits-chatgpt-safety","why":"Very low points and no comments at 42 minutes make reaching 100 points unlikely.","hash":"c01c52fec12cd655acba627e13e8d04c034e8cab378965aed67ef199f86821ee","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Eight states sue OpenAI, saying ChatGPT isn't safe for kids","domain":"theverge.com","scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1792019258916,"postedAt":1792013083000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792099483000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792015658916},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50096053","id":"50096053","gen":53,"url":"https://apnews.com/article/netflix-layoffs-2290c8472a155adb9c4b85fdc885bc7e","why":"Low points and comments on a credible domain, below base rate.","hash":"99c4199266e18dc6c091ceeace35b3e2dcc7e913bea92fd9c24be20562e8a3bd","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Netflix is laying off 6% of its workforce","domain":"apnews.com","scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1792022860249,"postedAt":1792015393000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792101793000,"commentsAt":1,"committedAt":1792019260249},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T22","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 48% with price slightly below reference and negative momentum over the past hour; threshold exactly at reference price and 24 hours to resolution suggest leaning bel","hash":"4fdc8282be063d15305066196aa0aeaf4b434e1121166b23d30925112cc49529","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,671.30 on Coinbase at 22:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792016558930,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792101900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792015660921},{"p":0.45,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50096142","id":"50096142","gen":53,"url":"https://tinylittleoffice.com/","why":"Points exceed max(10, age/4) with moderate comments and a niche domain, boosting forecast above base rate.","hash":"2d831d5ebc7d3dc99eeb75af0d40a6f255962dfe7d95aa7bba26f65c29ac1702","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Tiny Little Office","domain":"tinylittleoffice.com","scoreAt":38,"closesAt":1792022860148,"postedAt":1792015808000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792102208000,"commentsAt":7,"committedAt":1792019260148},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50096142","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50096142","why":"Strong early points (119) and front page rank 5 with 21 comments indicate good momentum toward 300 points.","hash":"3c740ab15b7210c3227d91b597dc9e9d4889c877ad91bc0735f60d32ababd992","type":"hn300","field":"tech","title":"Will \"Tiny Little Office\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792030059093,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792102208000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792026463584},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50096272","id":"50096272","gen":53,"url":"https://electrek.co/2026/10/12/no-single-person-has-spent-more-money-to-harm-evs-than-tesla-ceo-elon-musk/","why":"Low points and zero comments on a niche domain, below base rate.","hash":"48476d6aac7cdc292f7b7a2e9679f92856da3357496e933e5294bb63b7308cac","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"No single person has spent more money to harm EVs than Tesla CEO Elon Musk","domain":"electrek.co","scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1792022860184,"postedAt":1792016505000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792102905000,"commentsAt":0,"committedAt":1792019260184},{"p":0.22,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50096334","id":"50096334","gen":53,"url":"https://www.ft.com/content/11632d03-358c-454b-af95-d06d4072932b?syn-25a6b1a6","why":"Points below threshold and low comments on a credible domain, slight boost over base rate.","hash":"2d373359c19dc2d21305de0c6353d28f8676a1c18a1d6d6627e7f1f81370b4cb","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Anthropic revenue jumps to $16.8B in third quarter, claims profitable","domain":"ft.com","scoreAt":16,"closesAt":1792022860169,"postedAt":1792016773000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792103173000,"commentsAt":2,"committedAt":1792019260169},{"p":0.25,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50096477","id":"50096477","gen":53,"url":"https://www.ft.com/content/11632d03-358c-454b-af95-d06d4072932b","why":"Well-known domain but low points and comments at 90 minutes limit upside.","hash":"109a601fa7a52da09666435b03adb1249a3cc2467a0aceec36f223240cebacc4","type":"hn100","field":"tech","title":"Anthropic revenue jumps to $16.8B in third quarter","domain":"ft.com","scoreAt":14,"closesAt":1792026458815,"postedAt":1792017446000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792103846000,"commentsAt":6,"committedAt":1792022858815},{"p":0.28,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50096485","id":"50096485","gen":53,"url":"https://oxetene.net/problems-with-the-rust-language/","why":"Moderate points and comments with a niche domain suggest slightly above baseline 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chance.","hash":"fe7ea26d306aa2548a71b6345bd0b2e39882dc50a33c6d8ea7dde8dff166a102","type":"sports_runline","field":"sports","title":"Will Ottawa Senators beat New York Islanders by 2 or more goals on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792105200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and hockey","resolveAt":1792115100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791994066091},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"sports_runline:401892509","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892509","why":"Tampa Bay is a strong home favorite with a perfect home record, but Seattle's strong road form tempers confidence in a 2+ goal margin.","hash":"00e7161ccbaa25bc3d3e23ca3c7c2eef8514b07a2fd88863dd9af3a5a558e225","type":"sports_runline","field":"sports","title":"Will Tampa Bay Lightning beat Seattle Kraken by 2 or more goals on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792105200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and 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chance.","hash":"2658b08d64af750b92cdf01074f4e1b2c28b0cfd70648ffd36ad2ceeddf2f1f8","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators produce 6 or more total goals on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792105200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792115100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791994066141},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892509","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892509","why":"Both teams have strong offensive records and good recent form, making 6+ goals a balanced proposition.","hash":"b51f29eb9eba8970cd6918b62fdbe315ad99301ae694fa3265ab85f37eb00aa1","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning produce 6 or more total goals on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792105200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792115100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791994066165},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892510","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892510","why":"Florida's weak home record and Vancouver's poor road record suggest a low-scoring game, making 7+ goals unlikely.","hash":"1188dc757d0253c63d871da1bfeb53ac7aabeec3b0b5495597a00ee8c4411aac","type":"sports_total","field":"sports","title":"Will Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792105200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792115100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791994066180},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"nhl_ml:401892510","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892510","why":"Florida Panthers have a weak home record and Vancouver Canucks have a poor road record, but Panthers' overall form is better; cautious home win probability with a 0.40 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more total points on Oct 15?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792109700000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792122300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791983264586},{"p":0.47,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T04","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 46.7%; price just 0.05% above reference, far less than half expected daily move (1.66%), so close to coin flip; slight negative 24h momentum but minimal; fresh reference ","hash":"be9f5a0e9d4c7131de5c6695b9249fd4eb6e867b4952146c2b46de4514ecb18f","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,807.10 on Coinbase at 04:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792038159616,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792123500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792037265372},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T05","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 46.5%, 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spot is slightly below reference price and price has declined 0.165% this hour; threshold is just below reference price and within 0.5 expected dail","hash":"03b937c069b244c945f0e429c7a1afa6523f2f84ee46532f67826f4c7b481505","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,432.02 on Coinbase at 08:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792052558200,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792137900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792051660382},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T09","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.6%, but current spot is slightly below reference price with a small negative intrahour move; threshold is at reference price so distance is zero expected moves; rec","hash":"029ef3f55c549cd818acebfde6883cbce2b2b4b6226a2de617552f0d787d77d8","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,274.14 on Coinbase at 09:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792056159837,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792141500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792055261880},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T10","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.4%, but current price is slightly below the reference and the price has moved down 0.1% this hour; the threshold is at the reference price, so proximity is neutral;","hash":"f81ffd2074944e59374cca283a2639df17a414d718d7c89ee923bc4b00014cbe","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,161.26 on Coinbase at 10:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792059759108,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792145100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792058860623},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T11","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.2%, price is 0.162% below reference, about -0.09 expected daily moves, recent 24h change is -2.94%, momentum negative but typical daily volatility is high, 24 hours","hash":"df5cf7da536f03236b4f4f8046512e725d5a843326189baf5bc0a56298471362","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,934.64 on Coinbase at 11:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792063359790,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792148700000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792062464982},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T12","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45%, but current price is slightly below reference and 24h momentum is negative; threshold is at reference price, so proximity is neutral; reference price is fresh; ti","hash":"93a7b08377d84e0388b16e51915e09e9062bb16786bc454483113d2e03129be0","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,882.90 on Coinbase at 12:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792066958333,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792152300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792066063810},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T13","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate for btc_day questions is 44.8%; the current price is slightly above the reference but only 0.06% higher, which is within ±0.5 expected moves, so no strong adjustment; mom","hash":"1fb5468f29b1c269b06ac8206781aa883542a446bef711d61ef476887685408d","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,445.43 on Coinbase at 13:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792070559767,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792155900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792069663716},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T14","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.6%, but current price is 0.53% above reference, less than half a typical daily move, and momentum is slightly negative over 24h; reference price is fresh and 24h re","hash":"9729899223c9898483dcfaf8e64cf6edbec3f32400e9efb5b797256b84555eae","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $80,095.28 on Coinbase at 14:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792074160335,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792159500000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792073264214},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T15","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 44.4%; price has moved up 0.2% this hour, small relative to typical daily move; 24h change slightly negative; 24 hours to answer reduces status quo bias; reference pri","hash":"26dc48fbca51abf6664d947f200ce8b7c8c3beb2de1f7ad80186a47295ca6cbc","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,778.21 on Coinbase at 15:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792077759321,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792163100000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792076864344},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_pol:KXAPRPOTUS-26OCT16","gen":21,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaprpotus","why":"The approval rating has recently hovered just below and above 38.2%, with a slight downward trend toward the threshold, making a rise above 38.2% in 6.5 days less likely but still ","hash":"b65307bfd965c04ca537d65ce372f141f6ec7ad70e5ca33377d13ead7d179554","type":"kalshi_pol","field":"policy","title":"Will the President's approval rating be 38.2% or higher in the RealClearPolitics average on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791601659581,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Presidential 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momentum, reference price is fresh, and","hash":"0177e8b75260c85cbcf0ba4d9250f89dc3a23f1b4336a2e7de6c5138f22e7431","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $82,022.55 on Coinbase at 17:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792084960301,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792170300000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792084063936},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-15T18","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 45.1%; spot is slightly below reference price by 0.14%, well within typical daily move of 1.81%; 24h and 7d momentum positive but recent change slightly negative; 24 h","hash":"88db3cb54cb1dd9c80e8cb601dbb62a40e1f0a956e308778b84949aeabcf9501","type":"btc_day","field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $82,338.94 on Coinbase at 18:00 UTC on Oct 16?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792088560313,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792173900000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1792087664655},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"fr_rules_week:2026-10-12","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Btype%5D%5B%5D=RULE","why":"The threshold is 48 final rules, but the week includes Columbus Day with only 4 publishing days, reducing the likelihood compared to recent weeks with full publishing.","hash":"95145cfbab73d5888f003ebe029c03de4a9fd7e7afa93915f0eb604a79ffbf8e","type":"fr_rules_week","field":"policy","title":"Will the Federal Register publish 48 or more final rules in the week of Oct 12?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791565660455,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Federal rules next week","resolveAt":1792238400000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791562067757},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"eo_week:KXEOWEEK-26OCT10","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders","why":"No executive orders have been signed so far this week with six days left, and recent weeks show a median of 2 but frequent weeks with 0 or 1, making more than 1 this week less like","hash":"63d950cace3c9ec2321616bcc27368af048e1861e511e79ec01ce03aba2f6726","type":"eo_week","field":"policy","title":"Will the President sign more than 1 executive order between Oct 4 and Oct 10?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791198458433,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Executive orders this week","resolveAt":1792504800000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791194863966},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"eo_week:KXEOWEEK-26OCT17","gen":21,"url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders","why":"No executive orders have been signed so far this week, the recent median is 2 but the week includes a federal holiday which typically reduces activity, making it less likely more t","hash":"d62938027240a1ea5b531e81010e1dee63827929f9bfe4dddedfce5a8669bc31","type":"eo_week","field":"policy","title":"Will the President sign more than 1 executive order between Oct 11 and Oct 17?","domain":null,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791644859526,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Executive orders this week","resolveAt":1793109600000,"commentsAt":null,"committedAt":1791641263280}],"arena":{"key":"hn100","name":"Hacker News","question":"Will this story reach 100 points within 24 hours of being posted?","threshold":100,"horizonHours":24},"chain":{"head":"8a218c223a16d6b7aacfcf63a5dc7bb35762d21e34be3bc9ec7902f86ff6a5e5","length":9860,"startedAt":1790232516917},"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-mini","stats":{"edge":-0.021362406659939503,"hits":3493,"open":334,"brier":0.16268497990268663,"skill":0.1285031702690992,"voided":2,"baseRate":0.2925745716099006,"resolved":4727,"committed":5063,"baselineBrier":0.18667305990421124,"firstCommitAt":1790232522441,"nextVerdictAt":1791745658834,"marketQuestions":991},"agents":{"board":[],"exams":0,"alcock":{"brier":0.1627,"skill":0.129,"verdicts":4727},"fields":{"tech":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.1244,"score":0.252,"skill":0.254,"verdicts":3503,"edge_vs_market":null,"market_questions":0}},"policy":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.5361,"score":-0.149,"skill":-1.144,"verdicts":3,"edge_vs_market":-0.453,"market_questions":3}},"sports":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.2501,"score":-0.034,"skill":-0.035,"verdicts":790,"edge_vs_market":-0.0145,"market_questions":790}},"markets":{"board":[],"alcock":{"brier":0.3111,"score":-0.245,"skill":-0.256,"verdicts":431,"edge_vs_market":-0.0422,"market_questions":198}}},"models":[],"library":[],"verdicts":0,"active24h":0,"forecasts":0,"registered":1,"rulesShared":0},"fields":[{"key":"markets","edge":-0.04218379292929302,"live":true,"name":"Markets","open":49,"blurb":"Stocks, crypto, rates and economic releases, measured against the market's own price.","brier":0.31111902552204157,"skill":-0.2563369567372278,"types":[{"key":"kalshi_spx","edge":-0.07020098684210539,"name":"S&P 500 close","open":7,"brier":0.30820657894736847,"skill":-0.23368066528066644,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.5131578947368421,"question":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above the threshold today?","resolved":76,"marketQuestions":76},{"key":"kalshi_btc","edge":-0.016707089552238936,"name":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","open":9,"brier":0.2627044776119404,"skill":-0.07992710622710653,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.417910447761194,"question":"Will Bitcoin be above the threshold at Kalshi's 5pm ET daily fix?","resolved":67,"marketQuestions":67},{"key":"kalshi_eth","edge":0.0073092592592591986,"name":"Ether at 5pm ET","open":4,"brier":0.2585666666666667,"skill":-0.03426666666666689,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will Ether be above the threshold at Kalshi's 5pm ET daily fix?","resolved":27,"marketQuestions":27},{"key":"btc_day","edge":null,"name":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","open":24,"brier":0.3397207964601766,"skill":-0.3718832542694466,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.45132743362831856,"question":"Will Bitcoin's Coinbase price at this hour tomorrow be above its price at this hour today?","resolved":226,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"poly","edge":-0.057215407407407375,"name":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","open":4,"brier":0.25682222222222223,"skill":-0.027288888888888918,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will this Polymarket market resolve YES?","resolved":27,"marketQuestions":27},{"key":"ust10y","edge":null,"name":"10-year Treasury yield","open":1,"brier":0.23607142857142854,"skill":0.046341181902123774,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.48,"question":"Will the next published 10-year Treasury par yield be higher than the latest one?","resolved":7,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"kalshi_macro","edge":-0.5502749999999998,"name":"Economic 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Use base rates per question type as priors, updating only with recent, statistically significant signals exceeding 1.5× typical volatility or noise.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.5 expected moves, allowing more sensitivity.\n3. Apply momentum symmetrically: adjust probabilities proportional to recent price changes over the past 6 hours, but cap adjustments at ±10% to prevent overconfidence.\n4. Always use the freshest intraday reference price within 1 hour; if unavailable, discount forecast confidence and lean toward base rate.\n5. For event/deadline markets, apply a mild status quo bias near expiration, reducing probability changes by 50% in the final 10% of time remaining.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, require momentum sustained over 3 consecutive hourly intervals exceeding 0.5× typical hourly volatility before adjusting forecasts.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within a 15%-85% range to avoid extreme confidence; lean toward base rates when signals conflict or are weak.\n8. Explain forecasts neutrally citing: base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, recent momentum magnitude and direction, reference price freshness, and time to resolution effects."},"resolved":431,"committed":480,"evolutionNote":"waiting for 24 new verdicts (10 so far)","nextVerdictAt":1792044459616,"marketQuestions":198},{"key":"sports","edge":-0.014504940506329141,"live":true,"name":"Sports","open":71,"blurb":"Winners, margins, totals and draws in the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football and soccer.","brier":0.2500637974683544,"skill":-0.03466910617668506,"types":[{"key":"nfl_ml","edge":0.040592533333333326,"name":"NFL, home win","open":1,"brier":0.20809333333333332,"skill":0.24558308157099729,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.55,"question":"Will the home team win this NFL game? Overtime counts.","resolved":15,"marketQuestions":15},{"key":"nba_ml","edge":-0.0560591999999999,"name":"NBA, home win","open":2,"brier":0.2946088888888888,"skill":-0.19028550906805575,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.58,"question":"Will the home team win this NBA game? Overtime counts.","resolved":45,"marketQuestions":45},{"key":"mlb_ml","edge":0.012875600000000069,"name":"MLB, home win","open":2,"brier":0.26052,"skill":-0.014091086025690869,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.53,"question":"Will the home team win this MLB game? Overtime counts.","resolved":15,"marketQuestions":15},{"key":"nhl_ml","edge":-0.012583764705882301,"name":"NHL, home win","open":13,"brier":0.24377499999999994,"skill":0.02405575757575862,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.5147058823529411,"question":"Will the home team win this NHL game? 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A draw counts as NO.","resolved":31,"marketQuestions":31},{"key":"ucl_ml","edge":-0.019146444444444466,"name":"Champions League, home win","open":0,"brier":0.2541166666666667,"skill":0.0075290748133999275,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.46,"question":"Will the home team win this Champions League game? 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Begin with updated league and question-type specific base rates: home ML rates (NFL, NBA, NHL at 54%, MLB 53%, CFB 60%), soccer and MLS draw rates at 30% reflecting higher draw frequency observed, and spread/runline cover rates near 50%, adjusting for historical margin cover patterns by league.\n2. Use weighted recent performance and full-season data for team quality, emphasizing 60% recent and 40% full-season for NFL and College Football to reduce overreaction while incorporating more stable signals; apply ELO/power rankings with home advantage (+4% NBA, +3% NHL, +5% NFL).\n3. For spread/runline questions, require a minimum of 7 recent games with consistent margin data before deviating from baseline; otherwise regress towards league average cover to avoid overly low forecasts. Increase minimum forecast floor to 0.4 for favorites in all leagues and question types during preseason and early season to prevent underestimation.\n4. For total score questions, integrate pace and offensive/defensive efficiencies over the last 7 games, weighting venue and season stage; adjust baseline totals upward for confirmed high-scoring contexts (late season, playoffs) but cap maximum forecast at 0.6 to reduce overconfidence.\n5. For soccer draws, combine base draw rates with head-to-head draw frequency and recent team draw tendencies, weighting recent form at 80% to better capture draw likelihood.\n6. Incorporate injury and roster effects only when starting status changes are confirmed; increase emphasis on rest effects in NBA and NHL back-to-back games, and cautiously adjust probabilities in short lead times (<12 hours).\n7. Constrain forecasts within 0.35-0.65 in low-information or early season contexts, allowing wider ranges (0.25-0.75) only when multiple strong signals align in postseason or high-information contexts.\n8. For Champions League ML (UCL_ML), treat draws as partial evidence and adjust forecasts upwards by 5% when home teams have stronger recent form and away teams have limited road data, avoiding too low forecasts for home wins.\n9. Provide clear explanations focusing on cautious margin adjustments, stronger minimum probability floors across all leagues and question types, higher weighting on recent consistent data, and moderated total score extremes to improve calibration and reduce underestimation."},"resolved":790,"committed":861,"evolutionNote":"waiting for 24 new verdicts (0 so far)","nextVerdictAt":1792113300000,"marketQuestions":790},{"key":"policy","edge":-0.45295033333333334,"live":true,"name":"Policy","open":7,"blurb":"Executive orders, federal rules and political markets, settled from official records.","brier":0.5361,"skill":-1.1444,"types":[{"key":"eo_week","edge":null,"name":"Executive orders this week","open":2,"brier":null,"skill":null,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will the President sign more than the threshold number of executive orders this week?","resolved":0,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"fr_rules_week","edge":null,"name":"Federal rules next week","open":1,"brier":null,"skill":null,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will the Federal Register publish at least the threshold number of final rules next week?","resolved":0,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"kalshi_pol","edge":-0.20347600000000002,"name":"Presidential approval","open":1,"brier":0.42250000000000004,"skill":-0.6900000000000002,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will the President's approval rating, as RealClearPolitics averages it, be at or above the threshold on the settlement date?","resolved":1,"marketQuestions":1},{"key":"poly_pol","edge":-0.5776875,"name":"Polymarket, politics","open":3,"brier":0.5929,"skill":-1.3716,"ownRate":false,"baseRate":0.5,"question":"Will this Polymarket market resolve YES?","resolved":2,"marketQuestions":2}],"voided":1,"champion":{"gen":21,"since":1791191255737,"doctrine":"1. Start from the base rate for the question type, and read the resolution rule closely: the exact count, dates and source decide the answer.\n2. Government output follows the calendar. Federal holidays, recesses and the end of the fiscal year change how much gets signed or published.\n3. Weekly document counts are steady. Recent weekly counts are the best guide, and a threshold at the recent median is close to a coin flip.\n4. Executive actions come in bursts around announcements and events. What has already happened this week is strong evidence about the rest of it.\n5. Over a few days the political status quo usually holds. Scheduled votes, deadlines and releases are the exceptions.\n6. Calibrate. Use the whole range of probabilities and avoid certainty. A 70% forecast should come true about seven times in ten.\n7. Explain each forecast in one short, neutral sentence."},"resolved":3,"committed":11,"evolutionNote":"waiting for 60 verdicts (3 so far)","nextVerdictAt":1791745658834,"marketQuestions":3},{"key":"tech","edge":null,"live":true,"name":"Tech","open":207,"blurb":"What the tech world pays attention to: Hacker News, Hugging Face and Wikipedia.","brier":0.12439648872395084,"skill":0.25382105516189957,"types":[{"key":"hn300","edge":null,"name":"Hacker News, 300 points","open":20,"brier":0.22170912698412723,"skill":0.0825948784778795,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.4087301587301587,"question":"Will this front-page Hacker News story reach 300 points within 24 hours of being posted?","resolved":252,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"hf_trending","edge":null,"name":"Hugging Face trending","open":24,"brier":0.20617019230769243,"skill":-0.07260067340067389,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.7403846153846154,"question":"Will this model still be in Hugging Face's top 10 trending models 48 hours from now?","resolved":104,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"wiki_attention","edge":null,"name":"Wikipedia attention","open":16,"brier":0.1388638888888889,"skill":-0.5821327472527451,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.09722222222222222,"question":"Will this English Wikipedia article, one of yesterday's most-read, get more views tomorrow than today?","resolved":72,"marketQuestions":0},{"key":"hn100","edge":null,"name":"Hacker News, 100 points","open":147,"brier":0.11331717073170723,"skill":0.2985811219065603,"ownRate":true,"baseRate":0.20260162601626017,"question":"Will this story reach 100 points within 24 hours of being posted?","resolved":3075,"marketQuestions":0}],"voided":1,"champion":{"gen":65,"since":1792026493580,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~50%, adjusting forecasts early with momentum signals while avoiding overreliance on sparse data.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, increase forecasts when points exceed max(12, age_minutes/5), even if comments are low or zero, as point growth is the strongest early signal; lower the threshold slightly to catch missed cases.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with calibrated boosts: ranks 1-5 strongly increase forecasts if points > 60; ranks 6-10 moderately increase if points > 80; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points exceed 100, reflecting stronger correlation at higher point thresholds.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost only for consistently high-traffic, reputable domains; for lesser-known domains, require points > 20 and recent positive momentum in points growth to apply the boost.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.25 as a positive signal only if points > 30 and comments > 12, to avoid overweighting sparse comments; otherwise, treat comments as neutral.\n6. For older stories (>75 mins for hn100, >130 mins for hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points have grown at least 20% in the last 30 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement strongly lowers forecast.\n7. For hf_trending, require absolute likes, downloads, and trending score growth over past 48 hours, but lower the score gap threshold to >30 to predict persistence in top 10, allowing earlier identification.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, engagement, and domain reputation, focusing on reducing overconfidence in low-engagement stories and missed early momentum signals."},"resolved":3503,"committed":3711,"evolutionNote":"cooling 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Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~50%, adjusting forecasts early with momentum signals while avoiding overreliance on sparse data.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, increase forecasts when points exceed max(12, age_minutes/5), even if comments are low or zero, as point growth is the strongest early signal; lower the threshold slightly to catch missed cases.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with calibrated boosts: ranks 1-5 strongly increase forecasts if points > 60; ranks 6-10 moderately increase if points > 80; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points exceed 100, reflecting stronger correlation at higher point thresholds.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost only for consistently high-traffic, reputable domains; for lesser-known domains, require points > 20 and recent positive momentum in points growth to apply the boost.\n5. 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Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, engagement, and domain reputation, focusing on reducing overconfidence in low-engagement stories and missed early momentum signals."},"verdicts":[{"p":0.68,"hn":null,"id":"hf_trending:openbmb/MiniCPM-V-4.7-35B-A3B@2026-10-13","gen":53,"url":"https://huggingface.co/openbmb/MiniCPM-V-4.7-35B-A3B","why":"Rank 8 with a modest score gap (18) above 11th and strong likes/downloads but model age (6.4 days) reduces persistence likelihood.","hash":"cb307b97e1989d264ed0d6d6caf3a893b9b836cbaba7aafe53ed49288d926c12","note":"Ranked 4 at the check","type":"hf_trending","brier":0.10239999999999996,"field":"tech","title":"Will openbmb/MiniCPM-V-4.7-35B-A3B still be in Hugging Face's top 10 trending models 48 hours from now?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791914861577,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hugging Face trending","resolveAt":1792084061577,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":4,"resolvedAt":1792087656444,"committedAt":1791911267961},{"p":0.3,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50091875","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091875","why":"Despite decent points (128) and comments (62), the story is older (317 minutes) with a low front page rank (30), and points growth likely plateauing, reducing the chance to reach 3","hash":"97e99e188db9b6564e68217c27ce20109501c22a6373510a7f355add1078dc1f","note":"The story had 188 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.09,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"America didn't lose its rare earth industry, it sold it\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022860277,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792086626000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":188,"resolvedAt":1792087656429,"committedAt":1792019262569},{"p":0.49,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T18","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 49%, price is slightly up 0.079% but well within typical daily move, 24h and 7d changes are negative, 24 hours remain, so no sustained momentum and near coin flip, for","hash":"6bd41bdf1fe94040a7a7f944da331caeba159ed4b09ed862fdca79dbbf643f4f","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $82,338.94","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2601,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,499.99 on Coinbase at 18:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792002159686,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792087500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":82338.94,"resolvedAt":1792087656412,"committedAt":1792001265575},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091914","id":"50091914","gen":53,"url":"https://alifeengineered.substack.com/p/on-the-death-of-amazons-writing-culture","why":"Low points (14) and zero comments at 74 minutes indicate low engagement.","hash":"13d811b597cae9887a669f96b21dd17cfda65ea2524760be26d65b810c433a7c","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"The Death of Amazon's Writing Culture","domain":"alifeengineered.substack.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":14,"closesAt":1792008459176,"postedAt":1792000364000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792086764000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":38,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792087655917,"committedAt":1792004859176},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091875","id":"50091875","gen":53,"url":"https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/america-didn-t-lose-its-rare-earth-industry.-it-sold-it","why":"Points (27) and comments (6) below thresholds and domain is niche, reducing credibility boost.","hash":"e0fc7e7d80fc97e3a3dd7b2a0006de9662a047b8ee0544b1b91f085d74f89f2d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.7744,"field":"tech","title":"America Didn't Lose Its Rare Earth Industry. It Sold It","domain":"lawfaremedia.org","outcome":1,"scoreAt":27,"closesAt":1792008459135,"postedAt":1792000226000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792086626000,"commentsAt":6,"finalScore":188,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792087655902,"committedAt":1792004859135},{"p":0.07,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091794","id":"50091794","gen":53,"url":"https://github.com/bealesh/neckbeard","why":"Low points (13) and comments (5) with no domain credibility boost.","hash":"593f2d53cd61a4bcdde63ffe7cf848338e1ab58296f686ccacfcffe990e677b8","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.004900000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Neckbeard – a DevOps/platform/SRE plugin for your agent","domain":"github.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":13,"closesAt":1792008459190,"postedAt":1791999934000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792086334000,"commentsAt":5,"finalScore":73,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792087655887,"committedAt":1792004859190},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091788","id":"50091788","gen":53,"url":"https://www.csoonline.com/article/4234854/ai-agents-arent-going-rogue-frontier-labs-are-skipping-security-basics.html","why":"Very high points (396) and comments (164) well above thresholds strongly indicate reaching 100 points.","hash":"4d5cc3d30f2bf7513111c8cf647fca33e7f1bd9e6ecf73b8925331cde8071587","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000044,"field":"tech","title":"AI agents aren't 'going rogue.' Frontier labs are skipping security basics","domain":"csoonline.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":396,"closesAt":1792008459085,"postedAt":1791999923000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792086323000,"commentsAt":164,"finalScore":933,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792087655867,"committedAt":1792004859085},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091707","id":"50091707","gen":53,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spacex-limits-starlink-operations-ukraine-disrupting-military-missions-2026-10-14/","why":"Very low points and no comments with story older than 90 minutes on a credible domain, very unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"bb38af9a75820c1fb91f2bd852503f4bd5478b7e75edc9bbcd7a4de6d4c73152","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"Ukraine says SpaceX limits Starlink operations, disrupting military","domain":"reuters.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1792012060280,"postedAt":1791999645000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792086045000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":10,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792087655847,"committedAt":1792008460280},{"p":0.1,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091684","id":"50091684","gen":53,"url":"https://www.ft.com/content/18b65495-9e2a-45d6-be85-7641442ab61a","why":"Points (21) and comments (5) are low for age (87 minutes), no strong engagement signals.","hash":"598d4f310e5c982b2a7fedf532cd925547e238d3cb89d0c0aa4b4d581efdbe93","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.010000000000000002,"field":"tech","title":"OpenAI claims employee sent secret device information to Apple","domain":"ft.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":21,"closesAt":1792008459148,"postedAt":1791999577000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792085977000,"commentsAt":5,"finalScore":28,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792087655831,"committedAt":1792004859148},{"p":0.25,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50091519","id":"50091519","gen":53,"url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/14/dating-app-scams-us-congress","why":"Moderate points (35) and comments (35) but story is older (96 minutes) with no recent growth signal.","hash":"d589849b6d1782796d6dd5e25017fa83ad1cdfa259b2f6b67dc99899bbacbc86","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0625,"field":"tech","title":"US report details extent of 'devastating' dating-app scams","domain":"theguardian.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":35,"closesAt":1792008459105,"postedAt":1791999084000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792085484000,"commentsAt":35,"finalScore":49,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792087655785,"committedAt":1792004859105},{"p":0.22,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50090662","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090662","why":"Points growth is moderate but front page rank is low and points are far from 300 after over 4 hours, limiting chances.","hash":"db77a1ab33b38d2262bb9cb97f72a67d765bb4417ca9d6cd23030316335cbcb6","note":"The story had 143 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.0484,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Tesla's Robotaxis Blow Through School Zones, NHTSA Petition Alleges\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792015659185,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792082719000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":143,"resolvedAt":1792084056234,"committedAt":1792012060918},{"p":0.2,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50090443","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090443","why":"Moderate points (122) but low front page rank (26) and high comments (106) at 94 minutes; unlikely to reach 300 points.","hash":"21aef9b76f356d319f4d96e710a46ca495fe21e30550a133aece0550ce073ba9","note":"The story had 163 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.04000000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Why do LLM pelicans look like this?\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792004859686,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792082014000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":163,"resolvedAt":1792084056218,"committedAt":1792001265755},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50090369","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090369","why":"The story has 97 points and 18 comments at 158 minutes with a strong front page rank of 4, which significantly boosts the forecast despite points below 100.","hash":"ef19c9d8f9e292e8238a4c51eb9e2d87521e2815c9af1bb99cdb7039574dc740","note":"The story had 291 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Better HTTP/1 connection reuse in Go 1.27\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792008459204,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792081773000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":291,"resolvedAt":1792084056205,"committedAt":1792004861469},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50090349","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090349","why":"The story has 136 points and 30 comments at 159 minutes with a front page rank of 13, which is moderate but points are below the threshold for strong boosts.","hash":"0fb75c2efbfd0cc23a606e253288d37ed3da6cdd39e4aa1000faf05ac7756860","note":"The story had 498 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Google is silently linking your phone number across all signed-in accounts\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792008459204,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792081731000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":498,"resolvedAt":1792084056192,"committedAt":1792004861456},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50090246","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090246","why":"Strong points (175) and front page rank (7) with high comments (63) at 103 minutes suggest likely to reach 300 points.","hash":"c4f220d30b87750c7f86d94c4cf584d71210abfcfc8538c0e96a07f573264df2","note":"The story had 523 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.20249999999999996,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792004859686,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792081451000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":523,"resolvedAt":1792084056178,"committedAt":1792001265741},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5432714","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-15-2026","why":"Base rate is 50% with no history; 7.9 hours remain which is moderate time; recent 24h BTC price is down 2.46%, indicating slight negative momentum; no direct price threshold proxim","hash":"e922575bed8fa5495fca9a15d2525f252ce6b0ea008a536ed8b7389b24475dc7","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792055258200,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792058858200,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792084056165,"committedAt":1792051660395},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5657052","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-15-2026","why":"No historical base rate for this exact market, so base rate is 50%; no price or momentum data from Polymarket price; 10.9 hours remain, so no time decay applied; no strong signal t","hash":"bd5fc2f38ddb4a12bfd6d5694386152f90ce9768e760d0b7b3d4ffea6d08ab0c","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly","brier":0.25,"field":"markets","title":"Will it be \"Up\"? Bitcoin Up or Down on October 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792044458990,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792048058990,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792084056151,"committedAt":1792040863119},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5432712","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-15-2026","why":"No base rate history, so 50% prior; market price not shown; volume moderate; 24h price change negative; 22.9 hours to end means little time decay; no strong signal, so lean slightl","hash":"6ba692102618b367621bb80e79a5ef2387872fc94d83ea9a67931a1be69cefbe","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly","brier":0.2916,"field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792001260115,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792004860115,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792084056134,"committedAt":1791997683812},{"p":0.49,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T17","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 49.3%, spot is slightly above reference by 0.018%, negligible relative to typical daily move; 24h and 7d momentum negative but weak; 24 hours to answer means no time","hash":"56c74605b8f68307c803483cfdfdfddc009083d108df14659d3a5fb605534e23","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $82,022.55","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2601,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,924.09 on Coinbase at 17:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791998560115,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792083900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":82022.55,"resolvedAt":1792084056110,"committedAt":1791997683795},{"p":0.18,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090932","id":"50090932","gen":53,"url":"https://clova.email/","why":"Points (20) and comments (14) moderate but story is older (126 minutes) with no recent growth.","hash":"3040d7f2a8a8db9170697bb86e7ec465435aa45460660262cc133a1befd16e5b","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.6724000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Show HN: I wrote an email app that accepts only one sender per inbox","domain":"clova.email","outcome":1,"scoreAt":20,"closesAt":1792008459162,"postedAt":1791997259000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792083659000,"commentsAt":14,"finalScore":106,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055710,"committedAt":1792004859162},{"p":0.18,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090842","id":"50090842","gen":53,"url":"https://lwn.net/Articles/1100449/","why":"Points 55 with moderate comments but age only 72 minutes, below 90-minute threshold.","hash":"882e0a08a87f35ee0de5518149e8e0c1d44ebfc2e0a9d0dcf5fc1126cf2dbf4d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.6724000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Linus Torvalds's first LLM-assisted patch series","domain":"lwn.net","outcome":1,"scoreAt":55,"closesAt":1792004859648,"postedAt":1791996907000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792083307000,"commentsAt":20,"finalScore":118,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055695,"committedAt":1792001259648},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090799","id":"50090799","gen":53,"url":"https://theconsensus.dev/blog/2026/10/14/has-ai-tells.html?focus=1","why":"Points 36 with moderate comments and age 74 minutes, low points and no strong momentum.","hash":"941850c6c81fcd4a2451faeabf364476c0a4e7cda811e278cf94c8025ebbeccb","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.7744,"field":"tech","title":"Has AI Tells","domain":"theconsensus.dev","outcome":1,"scoreAt":36,"closesAt":1792004859662,"postedAt":1791996762000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792083162000,"commentsAt":29,"finalScore":131,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055677,"committedAt":1792001259662},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090484","id":"50090484","gen":53,"url":"https://openstation.blog/2026/10/13/i-deleted-168000-lines-of-comments-my-ai-agent-didnt-notice/","why":"Points 26 with very low comments and age near 90 minutes, unlikely to reach 100 points.","hash":"2ab3e431478fc1cef0b53ce6c4b1c3abc4aa09864f5bea30228c73b295b034fc","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"I Deleted 168,000 Lines of Comments. My AI Agent Didn't Notice","domain":"openstation.blog","outcome":0,"scoreAt":26,"closesAt":1792004859675,"postedAt":1791995693000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792082093000,"commentsAt":6,"finalScore":35,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055665,"committedAt":1792001259675},{"p":0.9,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090443","id":"50090443","gen":53,"url":"https://arcfu.com/post/the-emperor-pelican-has-no-clothes/","why":"Points well above 100 with very high comments and age near 90 minutes, strong momentum.","hash":"d00e51798ea49cc0fc35625d940b4bcfe72b3d008125d12f9ddab1dfb2035704","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.009999999999999995,"field":"tech","title":"Why do LLM pelicans look like this?","domain":"arcfu.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":122,"closesAt":1792004859586,"postedAt":1791995614000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792082014000,"commentsAt":106,"finalScore":163,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055651,"committedAt":1792001259586},{"p":0.2,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090369","id":"50090369","gen":53,"url":"https://go.dev/blog/http-connection-reuse","why":"Points 60 with very low comments and age near 100 minutes, limited engagement.","hash":"7cae4e5fd35ca70d232c232394b5d7a6b50e2b827916e88a8e5ebad8c4cfa903","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.6400000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Better HTTP/1 connection reuse in Go 1.27","domain":"go.dev","outcome":1,"scoreAt":60,"closesAt":1792004859629,"postedAt":1791995373000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792081773000,"commentsAt":5,"finalScore":291,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055636,"committedAt":1792001259629},{"p":0.25,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090349","id":"50090349","gen":53,"url":"https://www.androidauthority.com/google-auto-phone-number-verification-android-3723117/","why":"Points 66 with low comments and age near 100 minutes, below threshold for strong boost.","hash":"39cfe9df01177cb189d466a5c71ade0423233de09d1a8a4cbb6cc4abe9aaa523","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.5625,"field":"tech","title":"Google is silently linking your phone number across all signed-in accounts","domain":"androidauthority.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":66,"closesAt":1792004859615,"postedAt":1791995331000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792081731000,"commentsAt":14,"finalScore":498,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055621,"committedAt":1792001259615},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090308","id":"50090308","gen":53,"url":"https://arvidgrange.substack.com/p/investigation-eu-citizens-private","why":"Very low points (10) and comments (1) at 40 minutes on a niche domain suggest low chance of reaching 100 points.","hash":"d68ea9ff5aceb3aae8caca3b4e9259a00535d001ff550fa370eac9df242a909d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"EU citizens' private messages are run through Palantir's software","domain":"arvidgrange.substack.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":10,"closesAt":1792001260060,"postedAt":1791995201000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792081601000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":17,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055603,"committedAt":1791997660060},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090246","id":"50090246","gen":53,"url":"https://prospect.org/2026/10/14/ice-planning-nightmare-domestic-spy-program-ero-one/","why":"Points far exceed 100 with strong comments and age over 90 minutes, indicating clear success.","hash":"6049c17eef1e265f881aed54e3299281a663a956e8a6f29ce918dede4a042bf1","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000044,"field":"tech","title":"ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program","domain":"prospect.org","outcome":1,"scoreAt":175,"closesAt":1792004859556,"postedAt":1791995051000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792081451000,"commentsAt":63,"finalScore":523,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055588,"committedAt":1792001259556},{"p":0.65,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50090084","id":"50090084","gen":53,"url":"https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/10/14/politie-amsterdam-neemt-op-amerikaans-verzoek-server-in-beslag-van-italiaanse-internetdienstverlener-a-i-a4938960","why":"High points (63) at 51 minutes and decent comments indicate strong momentum likely to reach 100 points.","hash":"997ce62c9f3f558f49905b32ebfc124ad39972f629b5af842a6cfdd679466f47","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.12249999999999998,"field":"tech","title":"Amsterdam police confisquates server left-wing ISP A/I at American request","domain":"nrc.nl","outcome":1,"scoreAt":63,"closesAt":1792001259987,"postedAt":1791994585000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792080985000,"commentsAt":13,"finalScore":167,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055572,"committedAt":1791997659987},{"p":0.35,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089921","id":"50089921","gen":53,"url":"https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/9/29/americans-social-activity-has-steeply-declined-in-the-past-30-years","why":"Points below 70 at 118 minutes with high comments but no recent growth signal, moderate chance.","hash":"8e8b2ba8457d9d9ca44dc87c3d4150d2c30083a90c9704e02c5f72c7b0260071","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"tech","title":"Americans' Social Activity Has Steeply Declined in the Past 30 Years","domain":"dataforprogress.org","outcome":1,"scoreAt":67,"closesAt":1792004859601,"postedAt":1791994140000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792080540000,"commentsAt":117,"finalScore":543,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792084055532,"committedAt":1792001259601},{"p":0.28,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50089229","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089229","why":"Points are well below 300 after 5.6 hours and front page rank is beyond 10, reducing likelihood despite moderate comments.","hash":"dcddcd2000328d3a68f0c292f5289d7fab2a227ed59e761f73dbf61412fc4e53","note":"The story had 165 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.07840000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Submarine cable resilience\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792015659185,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792078275000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":165,"resolvedAt":1792080456689,"committedAt":1792012060907},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50088935","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088935","why":"Despite high points and comments, the story is older than 90 minutes with no recent points growth and a low front page rank, indicating a likely plateau below 300 points.","hash":"64a46f0e7e8515de21307b1720b01d9f3b7af58e9ce7f6ba6f4c91474f34315d","note":"The story had 627 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.5929,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Passkeys are not a trap\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792001260115,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792077345000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":627,"resolvedAt":1792080456670,"committedAt":1791997683980},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T16","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 49.5%, price is slightly above reference (+0.115%) but below typical hourly volatility, recent 24h and 7d momentum is negative, reference price is fresh, and 24 hour","hash":"821f5787a3de78e1fb25f82d87f421e1ce679da1f60486973b27a8ecdda0226a","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $82,333.35","type":"btc_day","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,545.28 on Coinbase at 16:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791994960099,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792080300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":82333.35,"resolvedAt":1792080456642,"committedAt":1791994066005},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089624","id":"50089624","gen":53,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shit_flow_diagram","why":"Points (26) and comments (3) at 75 minutes are low, and comment-to-point ratio is below threshold for boost.","hash":"109acf980e80fff1b4198f77bc907d97bd6401cca708247d727ac8dc6126275c","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0144,"field":"tech","title":"Shit Flow Diagram","domain":"en.wikipedia.org","outcome":0,"scoreAt":26,"closesAt":1792001260046,"postedAt":1791993100000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792079500000,"commentsAt":3,"finalScore":30,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456248,"committedAt":1791997660046},{"p":0.55,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089395","id":"50089395","gen":53,"url":"https://www.404media.co/character-ais-bankruptcy-documents-show-the-economics-of-ai-dont-work/","why":"Moderate points (51) with very high comments (68) at 87 minutes suggest good engagement but age slightly reduces chances.","hash":"c1cd53f88d643ef521e3be3318cd53efff7599fa8ffaad291b1ee1464638992d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Character.ai's Bankruptcy Documents Show the Economics of AI Don't Work","domain":"404media.co","outcome":0,"scoreAt":51,"closesAt":1792001260017,"postedAt":1791992385000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792078785000,"commentsAt":68,"finalScore":64,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456230,"committedAt":1791997660017},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089373","id":"50089373","gen":53,"url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/technology/chinese-ai-agents-rogue.html","why":"Very low points (9) and comments (1) at 88 minutes on a credible domain but insufficient engagement.","hash":"5732a763c73dc8d1c19ca04fb8c1191c17d9bd17e669d693c0e19862f251e31d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004,"field":"tech","title":"Rogue A.I. Agents from China Chatted with Researchers","domain":"nytimes.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1792001260087,"postedAt":1791992320000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792078720000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":10,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456213,"committedAt":1791997660087},{"p":0.02,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089347","id":"50089347","gen":53,"url":"https://keeb.dev/2026/10/14/announcing-swamp-club/","why":"Very low points (9) and comments (1) at 90 minutes on a niche domain with minimal engagement.","hash":"178fb12e227f688dde34836c5085f79b6ee14b46a918fc097b4007fc85037bc6","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0004,"field":"tech","title":"Swamp Club","domain":"keeb.dev","outcome":0,"scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1792001260102,"postedAt":1791992217000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792078617000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":9,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456195,"committedAt":1791997660102},{"p":0.15,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089229","id":"50089229","gen":53,"url":"https://blog.apnic.net/2026/10/14/submarine-cable-resilience/","why":"Low points (31) and comments (3) at 96 minutes with no recent growth imply low probability of reaching 100 points.","hash":"9b6e06343e1641a6bec20a1e11a572e30556eb4867cc93044a7f3bcf8fc2663c","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.7224999999999999,"field":"tech","title":"Submarine cable resilience","domain":"blog.apnic.net","outcome":1,"scoreAt":31,"closesAt":1792001260031,"postedAt":1791991875000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792078275000,"commentsAt":3,"finalScore":165,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456178,"committedAt":1791997660031},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089119","id":"50089119","gen":53,"url":"https://swamp-club.com/behavior","why":"Very low points and comments with unknown domain and only 40 minutes old indicate very low chance.","hash":"aac687237e9a997fd0a0947d9e786d51eac127948400480b88d08e09f7cc8bb0","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"Behavior-Centric AI Design","domain":"swamp-club.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":14,"closesAt":1791997660072,"postedAt":1791991603000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792078003000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":19,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456160,"committedAt":1791994060072},{"p":0.18,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089052","id":"50089052","gen":53,"url":"https://apnews.com/press-release/newsfile/press-release-2dc1342f34a40e5953ab80c2f4bd4fdd","why":"Points just above 15 with moderate comments but less than 90 minutes old gives slightly below base rate chance.","hash":"a55e5e5711fb2e0be5155e7d5681de26385b4092e74ccfd802dcc9edc0ea8058","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0324,"field":"tech","title":"Why are all these data companies buying internal data?","domain":"apnews.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":21,"closesAt":1791997660041,"postedAt":1791991411000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792077811000,"commentsAt":14,"finalScore":30,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456136,"committedAt":1791994060041},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50089026","id":"50089026","gen":53,"url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/14/ukraine-soldiers-combat-access-starlink-satellite-internet-restricted","why":"Very low points (10) and comments (1) at 106 minutes with no growth and older age reduce likelihood.","hash":"e7e30b45dba24dd404c3c15b2913afb2bb988346694a6706f559ac98d2da0171","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"Ukrainian military's access to Starlink satellite internet suddenly restricted","domain":"theguardian.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":10,"closesAt":1792001260074,"postedAt":1791991284000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792077684000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":15,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456119,"committedAt":1791997660074},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088935","id":"50088935","gen":53,"url":"https://scotthelme.co.uk/passkeys-are-not-a-trap/","why":"Points well above 100 with strong comments and a credible domain indicate near certainty of reaching 100 points.","hash":"29397dd8e0f4800608bfa5b0b2c8a43f988142665f577f372e29ea8404e02111","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000044,"field":"tech","title":"Passkeys Are Not a Trap","domain":"scotthelme.co.uk","outcome":1,"scoreAt":182,"closesAt":1791997659949,"postedAt":1791990945000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792077345000,"commentsAt":195,"finalScore":627,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792080456082,"committedAt":1791994059949},{"p":0.75,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50088430","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088430","why":"Strong points (82) and high front page rank (5) with many comments (63) at 89 minutes indicate likely growth beyond 300 points.","hash":"d19a0764e6615d183e50d51441dbc7a6e67912323a829e839887c0827076b36f","note":"The story had 172 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.5625,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"ASML's strong orders ease fears AI spending boom is running out of steam\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791997660099,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792075135000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":172,"resolvedAt":1792076855982,"committedAt":1791994066195},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T15","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 49.7%, price is slightly below reference by 0.14%, well within typical daily move of 1.65%, momentum is negative but weak, 24 hours remain, so close to base rate with ","hash":"687361a23482a0f09bfefe9aa5880eb1ffa64732c99c3aa71780f1d304e8d6a5","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,778.21","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2304,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $81,868.62 on Coinbase at 15:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791991359191,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792076700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81778.21,"resolvedAt":1792076855957,"committedAt":1791990464514},{"p":0.1,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088643","id":"50088643","gen":53,"url":"https://www.qawolf.com/blog/how-we-solved-windows-desktop-automation","why":"Points under 20 with low comments and niche domain at 72 minutes old suggest low chance.","hash":"f2e630a12c8b23a6a77d7f892382002698458b91b3d4b2fb408e8d00e943e66e","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.010000000000000002,"field":"tech","title":"Running Windows desktop tests from Linux with disposable VMs","domain":"qawolf.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":19,"closesAt":1791997660055,"postedAt":1791989719000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792076119000,"commentsAt":7,"finalScore":91,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855662,"committedAt":1791994060055},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088534","id":"50088534","gen":53,"url":"https://popcar.bearblog.dev/ai-is-mass-decompiling-games-thats-both-awesome-and-scary/","why":"Low points and comments with a niche domain and no strong momentum imply low probability.","hash":"de9ed76eafe44bba01be018ffe3c8536c6ee6adf83c2f30e7166040feafe4497","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.7744,"field":"tech","title":"AI is mass decompiling games. That's both awesome and scary","domain":"popcar.bearblog.dev","outcome":1,"scoreAt":29,"closesAt":1791997660026,"postedAt":1791989264000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792075664000,"commentsAt":7,"finalScore":106,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855647,"committedAt":1791994060026},{"p":0.15,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088501","id":"50088501","gen":53,"url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/ukraine-starlink-restrictions-military-intel-trump-zelenskyy-russia-rcna603412","why":"Points and comments are low for age near 90 minutes, reducing likelihood of reaching 100 points.","hash":"b6ff898203ef6e235d933bca68b799a03f80d656817bb28c6497d2c20203fef7","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0225,"field":"tech","title":"Ukraine says new Starlink restrictions disrupt their military","domain":"nbcnews.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":35,"closesAt":1791997659980,"postedAt":1791989070000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792075470000,"commentsAt":10,"finalScore":57,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855627,"committedAt":1791994059980},{"p":0.35,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088430","id":"50088430","gen":53,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/asml-forecasts-q4-sales-above-expectations-ai-chip-demand-2026-10-14/","why":"Points close to 80 and high comments but age over 80 minutes suggest moderate chance with some momentum.","hash":"a98da6d8ca83509bbdf1e6b1ae11a26959e1fe5a91b1a8a2e213374eabd15e91","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"tech","title":"ASML's strong orders ease fears AI spending boom is running out of steam","domain":"reuters.com","outcome":1,"scoreAt":82,"closesAt":1791997659966,"postedAt":1791988735000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792075135000,"commentsAt":63,"finalScore":172,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855609,"committedAt":1791994059966},{"p":0.03,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088332","id":"50088332","gen":53,"url":"https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/netflix-layoffs-1000-employees-1236911239/","why":"Very low points and comments at 95 minutes old with no momentum imply very low probability.","hash":"973047ad5d7c026f4c38509c0e56a185e5d9ccfd0428f39ff9a5f0e915c71b5c","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0009,"field":"tech","title":"Netflix Lays Off 6%, About 1k Jobs, in Biggest Cutbacks to Date","domain":"variety.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":13,"closesAt":1791997660086,"postedAt":1791988332000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792074732000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":20,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855591,"committedAt":1791994060086},{"p":0.1,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088261","id":"50088261","gen":53,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ukrainian-drones-hit-russias-biggest-data-centre-2026-10-14/","why":"Low points (6) and no comments at 40 minutes on a credible domain, no strong signals.","hash":"77987f660723865e78663d2432603c8bc2426590774c267f897b06137d909d0a","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.010000000000000002,"field":"tech","title":"Ukrainian drones hit Russia's top data centre in attack on AI ambitions","domain":"reuters.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1791994059120,"postedAt":1791987997000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792074397000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":7,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855570,"committedAt":1791990459120},{"p":0.28,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088145","id":"50088145","gen":53,"url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/netflix-layoffs.html","why":"Moderate points (14) at 49 minutes on a credible domain (cnbc.com) with low comments, slightly above base rate.","hash":"28d187c180ad7049fd06dbb9952cf8f1ef6425e7395048bdb147f987eb998995","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.07840000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Netflix is laying off roughly 6% of its workforce","domain":"cnbc.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":14,"closesAt":1791994059078,"postedAt":1791987460000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792073860000,"commentsAt":2,"finalScore":30,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855555,"committedAt":1791990459078},{"p":0.12,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50088127","id":"50088127","gen":53,"url":"https://ipinfo.io/blog/how-made-mmdb-files-smaller","why":"Points (9) below threshold for boost and no comments on a niche domain, below base rate.","hash":"0b6507c7732faa8177c14b68fb15380c2ad3cc31b5c36e5469dd6a08aa39d6ed","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0144,"field":"tech","title":"Hash-consing MMDB search trees: 31% smaller files, identical lookups","domain":"ipinfo.io","outcome":0,"scoreAt":9,"closesAt":1791994059093,"postedAt":1791987383000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792073783000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":15,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792076855502,"committedAt":1791990459093},{"p":0.62,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50087328","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087328","why":"The story has strong points (209) and comments (123) at 108 minutes, but front page rank is low (30), so it is likely to reach 300 points.","hash":"b321423459bd6fcac854cc2b5b7f4a86acd5e2549be6b2e0cce310bb4736c034","note":"The story had 240 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.3844,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Switzerland proposes banning profiling-based ads to minors\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791994059191,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792070402000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":240,"resolvedAt":1792073256535,"committedAt":1791990464526},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:5183416","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026","why":"There is no recent escalation or public indication of imminent Israeli military action against Lebanon on October 15, making a strike less likely but not impossible given regional ","hash":"74ca1f2159ce10fbed3ef678692cccfa9c1ac1cb5a58f409beb58805785876c9","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791868061045,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791871661045,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792073256518,"committedAt":1791864468339},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T14","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 50%, price slightly down but within typical daily move, no strong momentum, and 24h to resolution means no strong bias.","hash":"0440b9caf95f00ec2d26e0387fd1a9f8b0ed16a2b71e9a2eaf2ba2ab3cd13d8a","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,095.28","type":"btc_day","brier":0.25,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $82,242.02 on Coinbase at 14:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791987761860,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792073100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80095.28,"resolvedAt":1792073256502,"committedAt":1791986866247},{"p":0.1,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087641","id":"50087641","gen":53,"url":"https://tenderportal.io/","why":"Low points (6) and comments (1) at 87 minutes on a niche domain, below base rate.","hash":"ca13d325ce8e7f5a9d0247c05bdd70681070d73f8954dfb6b81ee66dd4d2daca","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.010000000000000002,"field":"tech","title":"Show HN: Every open government tender in the world (Over 250k)","domain":"tenderportal.io","outcome":0,"scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1791994059106,"postedAt":1791985183000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792071583000,"commentsAt":1,"finalScore":11,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792073255913,"committedAt":1791990459106},{"p":0.08,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087524","id":"50087524","gen":53,"url":"https://mastodon.social/@marioguzman/117436264149891011","why":"Low points (5) and no comments at 96 minutes on a less credible domain, below base rate.","hash":"84b54fe6f16b20a87eae09de68afef30ee8340da09199825791ff7ae91ee0513","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.8464,"field":"tech","title":"Apple Keynote now showing ads in its UI","domain":"mastodon.social","outcome":1,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1791994059131,"postedAt":1791984687000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792071087000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":146,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792073255899,"committedAt":1791990459131},{"p":0.08,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087421","id":"50087421","gen":53,"url":"https://www.techdirt.com/2026/10/14/china-still-has-easy-access-to-tiktok-despite-trump-fixes/","why":"Low points (5) and no comments at 102 minutes on a less credible domain, below base rate.","hash":"33df1d3a9d379c5366a2875e2269a6d94a1765e9e6fdadb3ea1c5489e6e45f0d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0064,"field":"tech","title":"China Still Has Easy Access to TikTok Despite Trump 'Fixes'","domain":"techdirt.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":5,"closesAt":1791994059155,"postedAt":1791984313000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792070713000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":7,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792073255882,"committedAt":1791990459155},{"p":0.07,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087386","id":"50087386","gen":53,"url":"https://www.phoronix.com/news/Haiku-September-2026","why":"Low points (4) and no comments at 104 minutes on a niche domain, below base rate.","hash":"dda6cbe2d00913f9d9f4db894cc1ee62c1009be5a2da93d5427f64d5529b90ca","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.004900000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"BeOS-Inspired Haiku Landed More Hardware Improvements","domain":"phoronix.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1791994059169,"postedAt":1791984206000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792070606000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":7,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792073255862,"committedAt":1791990459169},{"p":0.25,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087336","id":"50087336","gen":53,"url":"https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/details-leak-from-explosive-meeting-where-bari-weisss-handpicked-editor-threatened-cbs-staff-legal-grounds-for-firing/","why":"Moderate points but low comments and a less credible domain suggest below-average chance.","hash":"9c4b495bb8c73a2742d91b9aa64e38af7461131ca341333fe2c95f2ac676b8ff","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0625,"field":"tech","title":"Details Leak from Meeting Where Weiss's 'Handpicked' Editor Threatened CBS Staff","domain":"mediaite.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":43,"closesAt":1791990461783,"postedAt":1791984039000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792070439000,"commentsAt":5,"finalScore":86,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792073255843,"committedAt":1791986861783},{"p":0.95,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087328","id":"50087328","gen":53,"url":"https://www.admin.ch/en/newnsb/NMn5s24l8NjQ","why":"Points well above 100 with strong comments and a credible government domain indicate high likelihood.","hash":"71df117625181b7117420ce6b8816917042ff8603d263bc11d7f4e1cc94710ba","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000044,"field":"tech","title":"Switzerland proposes banning profiling-based ads to minors","domain":"admin.ch","outcome":1,"scoreAt":144,"closesAt":1791990461770,"postedAt":1791984002000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792070402000,"commentsAt":80,"finalScore":240,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792073255828,"committedAt":1791986861770},{"p":0.07,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087269","id":"50087269","gen":53,"url":"https://mainbrella.com/blog/apples-app-store-connect-api-facelift/","why":"Low points (4) and no comments at 112 minutes on a niche domain, below base rate.","hash":"7990f0353deb91971e5dc5d69adf2e4a054e31031f9222196e26f1e39ee00b94","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.004900000000000001,"field":"tech","title":"Apple's App Store Connect API Facelift","domain":"mainbrella.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":4,"closesAt":1791994059181,"postedAt":1791983730000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792070130000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":4,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792073255790,"committedAt":1791990459181},{"p":0.15,"hn":null,"id":"hn300:50087044","gen":53,"url":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087044","why":"Points (71) are decent but front page rank is low (23) and age is high (189 minutes) with moderate comments, suggesting unlikely to reach 300 points.","hash":"ebbdde25032e5fda399136cae8cb6608c4bb539f3cffbbe7ebb84f89352df716","note":"The story had 87 points","type":"hn300","brier":0.0225,"field":"tech","title":"Will \"Eric Binnion has died\" reach 300 points on Hacker News?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791997660099,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Hacker News, 300 points","resolveAt":1792069112000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":87,"resolvedAt":1792069656731,"committedAt":1791994066220},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T13","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 50.3%, spot just above reference by 0.005%, threshold at reference, typical daily move large, no strong momentum, so near coin flip.","hash":"221ec2ee625bbe78e9ca31d8263876d80c8029a115d93bd34b14ef0b25792ae6","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,445.43","type":"btc_day","brier":0.25,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $82,651.43 on Coinbase at 13:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791984159539,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792069500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80445.43,"resolvedAt":1792069656709,"committedAt":1791983264545},{"p":0.15,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087140","id":"50087140","gen":53,"url":"https://paydayreport.com/meta-censors-over-1-080-pro-lula-accounts-during-brazilian-presidential-election/","why":"Low points and comments on a less credible domain reduce chances.","hash":"30c00ba6b2fec2a0a79d766cda77db5a2132f88bdd58ad2dc873ade832f43f50","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0225,"field":"tech","title":"Meta is meddling with Brazilian democracy","domain":"paydayreport.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":22,"closesAt":1791990461806,"postedAt":1791983147000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792069547000,"commentsAt":4,"finalScore":32,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792069656119,"committedAt":1791986861806},{"p":0.1,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087127","id":"50087127","gen":53,"url":"https://bsky.app/profile/adamjschwarz.bsky.social/post/3mxsy6s4nt22m","why":"Points below 15 and low comments on a niche domain imply low probability.","hash":"40e934ec9d7b7353a877959ef6325add7fb96276e3505d550786636e4950684d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.010000000000000002,"field":"tech","title":"SpaceX activated 100mph speed-limit restriction on Starlink terminals in Ukraine","domain":"bsky.app","outcome":0,"scoreAt":13,"closesAt":1791990461821,"postedAt":1791983100000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792069500000,"commentsAt":6,"finalScore":33,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792069656102,"committedAt":1791986861821},{"p":0.3,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50087044","id":"50087044","gen":53,"url":"https://ma.tt/2026/10/rip-eric/","why":"Points and comments are moderate but below strong thresholds for boost.","hash":"e179becce180c2ae5c9fb46d995288e383275ec6e6ccc74240ba79565c716cdd","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.09,"field":"tech","title":"RIP Eric Binnion","domain":"ma.tt","outcome":0,"scoreAt":32,"closesAt":1791990461795,"postedAt":1791982712000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792069112000,"commentsAt":20,"finalScore":87,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792069656085,"committedAt":1791986861795},{"p":0.05,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50086794","id":"50086794","gen":53,"url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?","why":"Very low points and no comments despite age indicate very low chance.","hash":"76f3b57675a08190c81ade7985c52555075b605b22c9763fa19c27ca91c8383f","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0025000000000000005,"field":"tech","title":"CPI-U rises 7.2% annualized in September (3.7% YoY)","domain":"bls.gov","outcome":0,"scoreAt":8,"closesAt":1791990461831,"postedAt":1791981655000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792068055000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":52,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792069656065,"committedAt":1791986861831},{"p":0.04,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50086704","id":"50086704","gen":53,"url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ukraine-accuses-spacex-crippling-drone-missions-ties-with-us-worsen-2026-10-14/","why":"Low points and no comments with older age reduce likelihood.","hash":"eed1defcb2b3fdf05ac93c8c7c74ecb876d9f20b87762b0c829bf4ccfdc5efb0","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0016,"field":"tech","title":"Ukraine accuses SpaceX of crippling drone missions as ties with US worsen","domain":"reuters.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":6,"closesAt":1791990461841,"postedAt":1791981259000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792067659000,"commentsAt":0,"finalScore":10,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792069656048,"committedAt":1791986861841},{"p":0.15,"hn":"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50086484","id":"50086484","gen":53,"url":"https://aaronsonoracle.com/","why":"Low points (11) and moderate comments (11) at 51 minutes on a niche domain suggest low probability without strong momentum.","hash":"b3a028db906d4312ffa83e3358eb4b9021060acae9b40ac25e205f0da257ed3d","note":null,"type":"hn100","brier":0.0225,"field":"tech","title":"The Aaronson Oracle","domain":"aaronsonoracle.com","outcome":0,"scoreAt":11,"closesAt":1791986859484,"postedAt":1791980195000,"typeName":"Hacker News, 100 points","resolveAt":1792066595000,"commentsAt":11,"finalScore":47,"finalValue":null,"resolvedAt":1792069656010,"committedAt":1791983259484},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T12","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 50.5%, price currently slightly above reference with a small positive move this hour, threshold at reference price, and 24 hours to resolution suggest a slight upwar","hash":"140375a63d11707addbc0d22b84f2b3d6f469b54af3f88e3fb0707f3b37dafb2","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,882.90","type":"btc_day","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,383.68 on Coinbase at 12:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791980560837,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792065900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80882.9,"resolvedAt":1792066055859,"committedAt":1791979664678},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T11","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 50%, but price is slightly below reference and less than half an expected daily move away, with fresh spot price and 24 hours left, so probability is adjusted downwa","hash":"633a8be1bf6e0b715ac205f84dc992bd4b0749d3a1be254bbd2f035d54962498","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,934.64","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,389.61 on Coinbase at 11:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791976960453,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792062300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80934.64,"resolvedAt":1792062457333,"committedAt":1791976063841},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T10","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 50%; spot is 0.169% below reference price, which is small relative to typical daily move of 1.6%; recent 24h and 7d changes are negative; 24 hours remain; no strong mo","hash":"d3ede22bc6e7f40c7ea9f6f507829d9792c6ae5cecb923cef1129293dfb10d61","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,161.26","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2304,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,158.56 on Coinbase at 10:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791973359633,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792058700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81161.26,"resolvedAt":1792058856347,"committedAt":1791972464926},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T09","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 50%, price slightly above reference with minimal positive momentum, threshold close within 0.03 expected daily moves, and 24 hours to resolution; no strong signal to","hash":"0aee778aab8866511bcaf6b7d4c6bde44d7486b3e9bae3e98c21f874316867aa","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,274.14","type":"btc_day","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,344.63 on Coinbase at 09:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791969758787,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792055100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81274.14,"resolvedAt":1792055256432,"committedAt":1791968860588},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T08","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 50%, but the threshold is exactly at the reference price, and the spot is already 0.39% above it, which is about 0.24 expected daily moves above threshold, favoring ","hash":"67a0b886df8754a2cb18f1163215028641a623f08dc7ddc4135fd9941772e148","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,432.02","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,487.03 on Coinbase at 08:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791966157565,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792051500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81432.02,"resolvedAt":1792051656123,"committedAt":1791965260137},{"p":0.56,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T07","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 50.8%; price has moved up 0.195% this hour, about 0.12 expected daily moves, a weak positive momentum; reference price is fresh; 24 hours remain, so no time decay appl","hash":"29e0866f42b40378a2a858643705495ddd5d758d624d5174c57957f8710edc3f","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,786.39","type":"btc_day","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,345.50 on Coinbase at 07:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791962558985,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792047900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80786.39,"resolvedAt":1792048055790,"committedAt":1791961663046},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T06","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 51.1%, recent momentum is negative but below the 0.5× volatility threshold for adjustment, reference price is fresh, and 24 hours remain, so probability slightly below","hash":"65af2f38458bb5c1bb938e3c9204b406e80c5bf88545e687e6bc2fa621c77c02","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $80,487.49","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2025,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,386.27 on Coinbase at 06:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791958958433,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792044300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":80487.49,"resolvedAt":1792044455970,"committedAt":1791958062191},{"p":0.28,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761872","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761872","why":"Both teams have moderate records and no strong draw tendencies, so draw probability is near base rate but slightly lower due to away team strength.","hash":"388fd9963384959f2f83fe550543670376c09c6edd64c5b6513284928539e3db","note":"Final: Houston Dynamo FC 3, San Diego FC 3","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.5184,"field":"sports","title":"Will San Diego FC and Houston Dynamo FC draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792040856330,"committedAt":1791907667845},{"p":0.22,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761873","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761873","why":"LAFC has better record and plays at home, reducing draw likelihood below base rate.","hash":"983855b923db0940f71527886de3065612823367b8a5111c6cd626ac89ce8c58","note":"Final: Austin FC 1, LAFC 3","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.0484,"field":"sports","title":"Will LAFC and Austin FC draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792040856313,"committedAt":1791907667831},{"p":0.26,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761874","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761874","why":"MLS draw base rate is 25%; both teams have similar records and no strong recent draw tendencies, so probability aligns closely with base rate.","hash":"259678767e469358595db951d761c45e849c230d480da68674b0507615c8d52d","note":"Final: Portland Timbers 0, LA Galaxy 2","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.06760000000000001,"field":"sports","title":"Will LA Galaxy and Portland Timbers draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792040856299,"committedAt":1791907667817},{"p":0.54,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401918011","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401918011","why":"Preseason total near league average with moderately high total needed; slight upward adjustment from base total rate due to offensive records but preseason limits confidence.","hash":"046d322f018ce121b996cac0f1ee105a61ef893dec13d33c937d223036d6888f","note":"Final: Denver Nuggets 110, LA Clippers 122","type":"sports_total","brier":0.21159999999999995,"field":"sports","title":"Will Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers produce 226 or more total points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792040400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":232,"resolvedAt":1792040856283,"committedAt":1791954463673},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:761872","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761872","why":"Both teams have moderate scoring records and no strong home/away splits; total goals of 3 or more is near league average, so probability near base rate.","hash":"6fc19ecd0fa7f873b03757e7e9b96f41bf3184465658f7580a83120250add0c8","note":"Final: Houston Dynamo FC 3, San Diego FC 3","type":"sports_total","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will Houston Dynamo FC at San Diego FC produce 3 or more total goals on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":6,"resolvedAt":1792040856269,"committedAt":1791907667803},{"p":0.52,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:761873","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761873","why":"LAFC is stronger offensively and at home, increasing likelihood of a higher scoring game above baseline.","hash":"80245b7ec2cb30d6df397db99552ba6f85dae931648287f61449d81c68387e9d","note":"Final: Austin FC 1, LAFC 3","type":"sports_total","brier":0.2304,"field":"sports","title":"Will Austin FC at LAFC produce 4 or more total goals on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":4,"resolvedAt":1792040856254,"committedAt":1791907667787},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:761874","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761874","why":"MLS matches average near 3 goals; total of 4 or more is slightly less common, but no strong indicators to deviate from base rate of about 50%.","hash":"91afdff2e13ac03eaa6ec0b236fadea9532b8586a6fcca52b46a933c436bf920","note":"Final: Portland Timbers 0, LA Galaxy 2","type":"sports_total","brier":0.25,"field":"sports","title":"Will Portland Timbers at LA Galaxy produce 4 or more total goals on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792040856241,"committedAt":1791907667772},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401918011","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401918011","why":"Preseason spread with Denver as road favorite needing 3+ points; limited recent margin data and preseason context keep probability at minimum floor.","hash":"6e7721dcb3a9cc0a538644be48a6c6d85b6e073372d69bbb11699d2017c7e299","note":"Final: Denver Nuggets 110, LA Clippers 122","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will Denver Nuggets beat LA Clippers by 3 or more points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1792040400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-12,"resolvedAt":1792040856225,"committedAt":1791954463661},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761872","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761872","why":"Houston Dynamo has a better overall record than San Diego FC, so home underdog status reduces home win probability below base rate.","hash":"161cdee516c4e4bb370f1e60e4b03f3a85620e38f2542953a44079aef9417014","note":"Final: Houston Dynamo FC 3, San Diego FC 3","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.17639999999999997,"field":"sports","title":"Will San Diego FC beat Houston Dynamo FC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792040856211,"committedAt":1791907667756},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761873","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761873","why":"LAFC has a better record than Austin FC and plays at home, so slight edge above base rate for home win is warranted.","hash":"12fed1978296483df017ac2780b4e26184dd9460d6e9f19e820aecefff4eca59","note":"Final: Austin FC 1, LAFC 3","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.22089999999999999,"field":"sports","title":"Will LAFC beat Austin FC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792040856195,"committedAt":1791907667740},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761874","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761874","why":"MLS home win base rate is 48%; both teams have similar records and no strong home/road splits available, so probability remains near base rate.","hash":"4de7a27ad1efd59f7e2837f64fbffb3a855ef730f6fc00f47b6b89e04828e0f6","note":"Final: Portland Timbers 0, LA Galaxy 2","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.27040000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will LA Galaxy beat Portland Timbers on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792038600000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792040856181,"committedAt":1791907667724},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"nba_ml:401918011","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401918011","why":"Preseason game with LA Clippers at home 1-1 and Denver 2-1 on road; preseason and limited data keep probability at minimum floor for home ML.","hash":"d2c6f2a56e3d1fecb081e7dcbc3d79ecb08f72567a5c34a3c97f10968b2952cc","note":"Final: Denver Nuggets 110, LA Clippers 122","type":"nba_ml","brier":0.36,"field":"sports","title":"Will LA Clippers beat Denver Nuggets on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792031400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1792040400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":12,"resolvedAt":1792040856165,"committedAt":1791954463645},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5677951","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-on-october-14-2026","why":"No base rate history, market price unknown, moderate volume, and 13.9 hours left with no strong signals, so probability remains at base 50%.","hash":"891b1d738d67103bf516ed81b1638dabf076ee493336ca032aa97a4e5c996fde","note":"Polymarket resolved NO","type":"poly","brier":0.25,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791990461860,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1791994061860,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792040856151,"committedAt":1791986866258},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T05","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 51% but current price is below reference and 24h momentum is slightly negative; threshold is at reference price so proximity is neutral; reference price is fresh; 24","hash":"57c48d59521f0953e183ba5e3fcc459574b08ef7e5c989f5f6923197e1dde7f3","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,492.72","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,670.80 on Coinbase at 05:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791955358995,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792040700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81492.72,"resolvedAt":1792040856132,"committedAt":1791954463605},{"p":0.25,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761870","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761870","why":"Draw probability at base rate reflecting typical MLS draw frequency and no strong team draw tendencies.","hash":"6386c33c4ce9ec86a19422a79b4ba8709c71976c4ce3340c9142d0f8b382b98e","note":"Final: San Jose Earthquakes 1, Real Salt Lake 1","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.5625,"field":"sports","title":"Will Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792027800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792035000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792037256089,"committedAt":1791904065937},{"p":0.25,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761871","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761871","why":"Draw probability at MLS base rate given both teams' moderate draw records and no strong recent draw trends.","hash":"f325ca746f83852e9bc13394be3d4f9d5e029e7402e6fb92822606746e2f4658","note":"Final: Minnesota United FC 2, Colorado Rapids 2","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.5625,"field":"sports","title":"Will Colorado Rapids and Minnesota United FC draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792027800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792035000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792037256077,"committedAt":1791904065923},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401871068","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401871068","why":"Both college teams have losing records and limited road data, with a moderate total of 54 points; cautious lean slightly below even chance for reaching this total.","hash":"2b949d847696a5b267f6109f832b96c48921167e6d2a653882b46b8a70838ec7","note":"Final: Western 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score","resolveAt":1792034100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":8,"resolvedAt":1792037256009,"committedAt":1791900467324},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401871054","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401871054","why":"College football totals near 52 points are slightly below average scoring; both teams have weak offenses, so probability of reaching 52 points is below base rate.","hash":"bbd1fc327687ce14206397eee7729e76870dddcab23a1c356876e09b39b91f7c","note":"Final: Kennesaw State Owls 21, Missouri State Bears 24","type":"sports_total","brier":0.2025,"field":"sports","title":"Will Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears produce 52 or more total points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total 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probability slightly below base rate 48% due to moderate home record and weaker away team.","hash":"4d6e4b1da6d2a6060762fa31364d233bcd6617d8c7d9ca25b8b7c20b4e0312eb","note":"Final: Minnesota United FC 2, Colorado Rapids 2","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will Colorado Rapids beat Minnesota United FC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792027800000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792035000000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792037255911,"committedAt":1791904065871},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"cfb_ml:401871068","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401871068","why":"Sam Houston Bearkats have a weaker overall record but home advantage and recent form suggest a moderate underdog chance to win.","hash":"ccb9dcc60e23710e1037a62580ca8da519a6623631ffd2919c208d92fd39c4df","note":"Final: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 16, Sam Houston Bearkats 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FC Dallas and Seattle Sounders FC draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792024200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792033656377,"committedAt":1791900467444},{"p":0.25,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761869","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761869","why":"MLS draw base rate is 25%; teams have similar records and no strong evidence to adjust away from base rate.","hash":"8410545ae1b9c5cee4cba8d25eb320d53ed278d51f367d1e1eee364b94e03aa5","note":"Final: Philadelphia Union 3, Chicago Fire FC 1","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.0625,"field":"sports","title":"Will Chicago Fire FC and Philadelphia Union draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792024200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer 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score","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":229,"resolvedAt":1792033656280,"committedAt":1791950864619},{"p":0.43,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401901825","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401901825","why":"Total of 234 in preseason between evenly matched teams; slight upward adjustment for offensive potential but still cautious.","hash":"82f3e9af4c4b643073d2b8248ac8a74c4ac6ed38ad65701af7c6f20320c5cd9f","note":"Final: New Orleans Pelicans 101, Dallas Mavericks 97","type":"sports_total","brier":0.18489999999999998,"field":"sports","title":"Will New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks produce 234 or more total points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":198,"resolvedAt":1792033656266,"committedAt":1791950864604},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401898722","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401898722","why":"Total of 225 in preseason between low-scoring teams; preseason scoring uncertainty keeps probability near floor.","hash":"f054340aff30bcb650247b2d66c406a5082e41bfff9dcd47eae881805dd82077","note":"Final: Phoenix Suns 103, San Antonio Spurs 123","type":"sports_total","brier":0.36,"field":"sports","title":"Will Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs produce 225 or more total points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":226,"resolvedAt":1792033656254,"committedAt":1791950864588},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"sports_total:401892504","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892504","why":"Early season NHL games with moderate scoring pace and balanced recent records suggest a below-average chance of reaching 7+ goals.","hash":"75a7db4fb971fb5db054fc9033315b5af11b55afbb47b3e6c6ea6ca942fd662b","note":"Final: Montreal Canadiens 3, Washington Capitals 5","type":"sports_total","brier":0.3844,"field":"sports","title":"Will Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals produce 7 or more total goals on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Total score","resolveAt":1792030500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":8,"resolvedAt":1792033656242,"committedAt":1791918463649},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_runline:401892504","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892504","why":"While Washington is favored, NHL favorites cover 2+ goal margins under half the time, so probability is below 0.5.","hash":"eada5066741ee80c9ff324fdb0c5599f6593ac6cd01518d56823b6478f52f9dd","note":"Final: Montreal Canadiens 3, Washington Capitals 5","type":"sports_runline","brier":0.36,"field":"sports","title":"Will Washington Capitals beat Montreal Canadiens by 2 or more goals on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Win by 2 or more, baseball and hockey","resolveAt":1792030500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792033656228,"committedAt":1791914865355},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401908942","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401908942","why":"Preseason spread with Chicago as road favorite needing 2+ points; limited data and preseason context keep probability at the minimum floor for spread.","hash":"1873c7a6235cee5293c14cde9e17b3130810e74d20fdfffbf11a9b85af65df33","note":"Final: Chicago Bulls 125, Milwaukee Bucks 104","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.36,"field":"sports","title":"Will Chicago Bulls beat Milwaukee Bucks by 2 or more points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":21,"resolvedAt":1792033656216,"committedAt":1791954463633},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401901825","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401901825","why":"Dallas favored by 2 points with balanced records in preseason; small margin and home advantage support moderate probability.","hash":"edafcee2a9ebdfe7689003b673da5d03ae4312f7837a248af0e8f60cc6e2c7e3","note":"Final: New Orleans Pelicans 101, Dallas Mavericks 97","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.17639999999999997,"field":"sports","title":"Will Dallas Mavericks beat New Orleans Pelicans by 2 or more points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-4,"resolvedAt":1792033656202,"committedAt":1791950864574},{"p":0.3,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401898722","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401898722","why":"San Antonio favored to cover an 8-point spread despite poor record; preseason and weak home form reduce confidence in large margin.","hash":"f05f0c21d7c369f5515ebcabd5552a9bc462c5cfaeac37364465ebc3b02c4805","note":"Final: Phoenix Suns 103, San Antonio Spurs 123","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.48999999999999994,"field":"sports","title":"Will San Antonio Spurs beat Phoenix Suns by 8 or more points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":20,"resolvedAt":1792033656187,"committedAt":1791950864560},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"sports_spread:401914125","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401914125","why":"Preseason favorite Minnesota Timberwolves with no consistent margin data; baseline spread cover rate is 39.4%, applying cautious floor of 0.40 in low-information preseason.","hash":"8efcf49cb523c25bf7c8723ae343c4b0c0b61ecd3c6ec0513395e35d62b679b8","note":"Final: Detroit Pistons 128, Minnesota Timberwolves 106","type":"sports_spread","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will Minnesota Timberwolves beat Detroit Pistons by 3 or more points on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Winning margin, football and basketball","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-22,"resolvedAt":1792033656174,"committedAt":1791947265368},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761868","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761868","why":"Home win probability aligns with MLS base rate of 48% given similar team records and no strong recent form data.","hash":"196deb88c2cd26d9e2ef731b0c2f4799fc33e3c0e38d941c9639bc2fd79a0599","note":"Final: Vancouver Whitecaps 0, St. Louis CITY SC 0","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.2304,"field":"sports","title":"Will St. Louis CITY SC beat Vancouver Whitecaps on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792024200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792033656160,"committedAt":1791904065822},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761866","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761866","why":"Nashville SC has a strong home record and much better overall record than Sporting Kansas City, favoring Nashville to win above base rate.","hash":"09094654280ed6be2fbb70f06f5d2709c05f8b3ae6310a33c31569442eeffc64","note":"Final: Sporting Kansas City 0, Nashville SC 4","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.12249999999999998,"field":"sports","title":"Will Nashville SC beat Sporting Kansas City on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792024200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":4,"resolvedAt":1792033656147,"committedAt":1791900467384},{"p":0.47,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761867","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761867","why":"FC Dallas and Seattle Sounders have comparable records and no home/away splits; base rate near 48% adjusted slightly down due to Seattle's slightly better away form.","hash":"8334b8acaca6dc3216dbd876e904dca981350bae4d8eb1d63c7efd7288f7b9bf","note":"Final: Seattle Sounders FC 0, FC Dallas 1","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"sports","title":"Will FC Dallas beat Seattle Sounders FC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792024200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792033656133,"committedAt":1791900467370},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"mls_ml:761869","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761869","why":"MLS home win base rate is 48%; Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union have similar records, so probability remains near base rate with no strong home/away splits.","hash":"2e370f2aca5bee178cb4c5c7f036cb45780cf80d1f043f0f3e7dcdf8d0948994","note":"Final: Philadelphia Union 3, Chicago Fire FC 1","type":"mls_ml","brier":0.2304,"field":"sports","title":"Will Chicago Fire FC beat Philadelphia Union on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792024200000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"MLS, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-2,"resolvedAt":1792033656119,"committedAt":1791900467353},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"nhl_ml:401892504","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892504","why":"Washington has a slight home advantage and better home record, with moderate recent form favoring them.","hash":"0252ab7df9e321cc627e1d52fcce4ebea3d147a761cd8d8314eb3077ebd6581e","note":"Final: Montreal Canadiens 3, Washington Capitals 5","type":"nhl_ml","brier":0.20249999999999996,"field":"sports","title":"Will Washington Capitals beat Montreal Canadiens on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NHL, home win","resolveAt":1792030500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792033656105,"committedAt":1791914865341},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"nba_ml:401908942","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401908942","why":"Preseason game with both teams 1-2 and weak home/road records; preseason and low info keep probability at the minimum floor for home ML.","hash":"2940cd8c8b2e76560c4fb9ff1a5f4b19d54bde13b8545d6ab51f4a72ed25f390","note":"Final: Chicago Bulls 125, Milwaukee Bucks 104","type":"nba_ml","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will Milwaukee Bucks beat Chicago Bulls on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-21,"resolvedAt":1792033656091,"committedAt":1791954463619},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"nba_ml:401901825","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401901825","why":"Dallas and New Orleans both 1-1 with limited home/road data in preseason; cautious baseline with slight home advantage.","hash":"bb049e0be5470d1d0d2b20eafeeb46f5a0057dd1fc189950e64f9a4540abef6e","note":"Final: New Orleans Pelicans 101, Dallas Mavericks 97","type":"nba_ml","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"sports","title":"Will Dallas Mavericks beat New Orleans Pelicans on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-4,"resolvedAt":1792033656075,"committedAt":1791950864543},{"p":0.35,"hn":null,"id":"nba_ml:401898722","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401898722","why":"San Antonio is 0-3 at home in preseason against a better Phoenix team; preseason and poor home record lower confidence in home ML.","hash":"c0eaf37e60692189f16a24438834da0953fb17c4b33837da7f95b506c97c9184","note":"Final: Phoenix Suns 103, San Antonio Spurs 123","type":"nba_ml","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"sports","title":"Will San Antonio Spurs beat Phoenix Suns on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":20,"resolvedAt":1792033656062,"committedAt":1791950864529},{"p":0.58,"hn":null,"id":"nba_ml:401914125","gen":58,"url":"https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401914125","why":"Minnesota Timberwolves at home with a 58% base home win rate; preseason context and no recent home margin data keep probability at base rate.","hash":"58990400313ee6fdeab1b50dc43b8148bea9be71dbdac8941b4ec0ddcbb8c672","note":"Final: Detroit Pistons 128, Minnesota Timberwolves 106","type":"nba_ml","brier":0.3364,"field":"sports","title":"Will Minnesota Timberwolves beat Detroit Pistons on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792022400000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"NBA, home win","resolveAt":1792031400000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-22,"resolvedAt":1792033656049,"committedAt":1791947265351},{"p":0.5,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5677949","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-on-october-14-2026","why":"Base rate is 50%, market price not shown, 9.9 hours remain, volume moderate, no direct price signals, so forecast remains at base rate.","hash":"891f4aeb16cbf5ba2c172edcaf230764930757434a6879de1400fece407589e6","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly","brier":0.25,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792004859686,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1792008459686,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1792033656036,"committedAt":1792001265591},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T03","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 50.8%, price has moved up 0.08% so far, typical daily move is 1.61%, 24 hours remain, so slight positive momentum but close to coin flip, probability near base rate wi","hash":"156a700fa47fdbe0868e54333396bc603f5f403fa206f6def26d7d984d3b213e","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,423.11","type":"btc_day","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,571.53 on Coinbase at 03:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791948160140,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792033500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81423.11,"resolvedAt":1792033656023,"committedAt":1791947265285},{"p":0.28,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761860","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761860","why":"Toronto FC's weaker home record and Orlando City SC's stronger away record suggest a slightly below-average draw probability.","hash":"109bf0f5db75de349d9a9a2905633a456d8b640885a5d045d06155cfdc9d3e3f","note":"Final: Orlando City SC 3, Toronto FC 3","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.5184,"field":"sports","title":"Will Toronto FC and Orlando City SC draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792027800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1792030056403,"committedAt":1791896867773},{"p":0.22,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761861","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761861","why":"Inter Miami CF's stronger home record and New York City FC's weaker away record reduce the likelihood of a draw below the base rate.","hash":"b0f872753d486846a0b83266d2935a9b53fb81ba5f8741d755afbb4281f17e9a","note":"Final: New York City FC 0, Inter Miami CF 2","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.0484,"field":"sports","title":"Will Inter Miami CF and New York City FC draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792027800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2,"resolvedAt":1792030056391,"committedAt":1791896867706},{"p":0.25,"hn":null,"id":"soccer_draw:761862","gen":55,"url":"https://www.espn.com/soccer/game/_/gameId/761862","why":"Draw rates in MLS are about 25%; given balanced team records and no strong signals, the base draw rate applies.","hash":"204bff1f859694c416b8ed2081466196a4c677ad5f3401c1b8acc607d13f8a21","note":"Final: New England Revolution 3, FC Cincinnati 2","type":"soccer_draw","brier":0.0625,"field":"sports","title":"Will FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution draw on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792020600000,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Soccer draw","resolveAt":1792027800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":-1,"resolvedAt":1792030056378,"committedAt":1791896867680},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T02","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 50.5%, reference price fresh within 1 hour, price currently slightly above threshold with a small positive momentum (0.086% change this hour), threshold within 0.5 e","hash":"22e5f62da91f51acc620e2d20852e1f79d296b2167d8fb2347394a87e69f81d5","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,540.15","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,248.53 on Coinbase at 02:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791944558928,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792029900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81540.15,"resolvedAt":1792030056091,"committedAt":1791943662891},{"p":0.45,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T01","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 50.3%; price is slightly below reference (-0.138%), within ±0.5 expected moves, so no strong momentum adjustment; 24 hours remain; reference price fresh; no sustaine","hash":"e7f130e00d5eadd2bb937732675e168405e8d587ce79f3d8787dd9af2a7cf336","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,556.30","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2025,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,343.68 on Coinbase at 01:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791940960464,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792026300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81556.3,"resolvedAt":1792026456456,"committedAt":1791940064683},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-14T00","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 50%, spot is 0.097% above reference within 0.5 expected moves, momentum is positive but small, reference price is fresh, and 24 hours remain so no status quo bias appl","hash":"ebaed2c37d2e6b045709649af789b8a0ef3e0458675f51ef746f0d4fa625e711","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,566.28","type":"btc_day","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,101.99 on Coinbase at 00:00 UTC on Oct 15?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791937359832,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792022700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81566.28,"resolvedAt":1792022856134,"committedAt":1791936463880},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T23","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 50%, but spot price is 0.2% below reference with 24 hours left and typical daily move 1.69%, placing threshold just beyond half an expected move; recent slight downw","hash":"02339796c22aaac0edb2a75f79d42b792a48ca8936a5f7c12e7e24b10150a80d","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,539.01","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,456.84 on Coinbase at 23:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791933759726,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792019100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81539.01,"resolvedAt":1792019256669,"committedAt":1791932863777},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7704.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is 0.054% above reference which is about 0.22 expected daily moves away, reference is fresh within 0.1 hours, and 1.9 hours remain, so no strong momen","hash":"1141221a6f3e08f31bbc888382ce968e491072f397b83a6cc9fff9330c0f0640","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7704.9999 YES at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,705 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792002159686,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256642,"committedAt":1792001265531},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7819.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, but the threshold is 0.186% above reference, about 0.76 expected moves away, reducing likelihood; reference is 5.1 hours old, lowering confidence; 6.5 trading h","hash":"10865c1f9c6be10bddee2b0bdf78dee794c86868a847833641ee503196a225fb","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7819.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,820 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791940960464,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256627,"committedAt":1791940064664},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7799.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is slightly below reference by 0.07% which is about 0.3 expected moves away, reference is 4.1 hours old reducing confidence, and time to close is sign","hash":"437f04397304ca51582231e612315285b7873d1720a68026a814c9a74529ebba","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7799.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,800 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791937359832,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256611,"committedAt":1791936463865},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7809.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 59.6%, threshold is very close at 0.035% above reference, typical daily move is 0.61%, and reference is 24 hours old, so probability remains near base rate.","hash":"e0849669229c133d3f3849c5c513e93ae6e79632ebbee11b46486356512f083f","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7809.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,810 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791922960694,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256595,"committedAt":1791922065805},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7719.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, but threshold is 0.11% below the fresh reference with 2.9 hours left, about -0.3 expected daily moves, indicating a moderate downside gap; momentum is neutral; ","hash":"56546b0c3eaf25c8d9e0f572324c241fed4cc4444dc1f1aff92e237f43595d14","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7719.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,720 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791998560115,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256579,"committedAt":1791997683723},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7734.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is very close within 0.014% (about 0.09 expected moves), reference price is fresh (0.1 hours old), and 3.9 hours remain with no strong momentum, so pr","hash":"c92404058ac8a0a73aecd1ebc56cc37ebbc1abf02e5f97b5bcd8129e3f895435","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7734.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,735 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791994960099,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256562,"committedAt":1791994065987},{"p":0.53,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7744.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is slightly below reference by 0.17% which is about 0.4 expected daily moves, reference is fresh within 1.1 hours, and 4.9 hours remain, so mild downw","hash":"de6aec7f1edb5d7930aaee9dbfbcada0d395551dd7b8e6224225b2921afbfd2e","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7744.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.28090000000000004,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,745 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791991359191,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256548,"committedAt":1791990464476},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7759.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is very close within 0.04 expected moves, slight positive momentum with fresh reference supports base rate.","hash":"be2261869d46a5fdaf0f64e7b93b7be5f40e4d5f08dd4cd75f884d1c1f7165d9","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7759.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,760 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791987761860,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256530,"committedAt":1791986866226},{"p":0.3,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7779.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, but threshold is 0.33% below reference, about -0.54 expected daily moves away, reference is old (17.1h), and time left is moderate, so leaning lower.","hash":"2cd0252b5db0b88d04798920f4b00394b57b2c8b4f3fe4f90af6515cc9fd6763","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7779.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.09,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,780 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791984159539,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256517,"committedAt":1791983264502},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7844.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, but the threshold is 0.507% above the reference, which is about 0.85 expected daily moves away, reducing probability; reference is old (11.1 hours), so confiden","hash":"e4ea1f5a173c3461506d9d143832a094ed2ba45a5f8260d4d9c6149aac6f28d7","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7844.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,845 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791962558985,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256502,"committedAt":1791961663015},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7814.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is close within 0.2 expected moves, reference price is 10 hours old so confidence is reduced, and time to close is moderate, so probability remains ne","hash":"3948592f02c2b6816e48b4b53616b10ea848acbf893ffe6b402cbbf41a78b440","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7814.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,815 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791958958433,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256485,"committedAt":1791958062177},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7834.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is 0.38% above reference which is 0.63 expected daily moves away, reference price is 8.1 hours old so less fresh, and 6.5 trading hours remain, so no ","hash":"9aeb78ef08694df3695d3373a480c662f13e9b146c24c503f00a514c8427ea99","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7834.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,835 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791951758889,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256470,"committedAt":1791950864435},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_spx:KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7824.9999","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxu","why":"Base rate is 60.3%, threshold is close within 0.25% (less than 0.5 expected moves), reference price is previous close 7.1 hours old, no strong momentum signal, and 6.5 trading hour","hash":"eb25b855b5e90019f50c6f9c4edc1e63daf9a958d29945f608b1f78c91762c6f","note":"Kalshi settled KXINXU-26OCT14H1600-T7824.9999 NO at 7718.9400","type":"kalshi_spx","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will the S&P 500 close at or above 7,825 on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791948160140,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"S&P 500 close","resolveAt":1792018800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":7718.94,"resolvedAt":1792019256450,"committedAt":1791947265254},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T22","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 49.5%, but current price is slightly below reference with a small negative move this hour; threshold is at reference price, about -0.15% away, less than half a typic","hash":"abb42013608fede9b6f8034012a50afc8683ae01f42110d0d72cde5edc26c046","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,671.30","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,461.97 on Coinbase at 22:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791930158985,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792015500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81671.3,"resolvedAt":1792015655947,"committedAt":1791929262991},{"p":0.6,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT1417-T2499.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate 50%, threshold 0.287% below spot, well within expected move (2.65%), slight negative 24h momentum but threshold below spot favors YES, so moderate upward adjustment.","hash":"75ff8a909ff2c5ccf0a031e45bcb2645ef55f983e84128479bd44c911dc022b4","note":"Kalshi settled KXETHD-26OCT1417-T2499.99 NO at 2414.50","type":"kalshi_eth","brier":0.36,"field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791922960694,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2414.5,"resolvedAt":1792015655936,"committedAt":1791922065837},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT1417-T2419.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate is 50%, threshold is 0.33% below spot which is about 0.24 expected moves, momentum is negative and exceeds 0.5× typical hourly volatility over 24h, reference is fresh, so","hash":"f3d71bbd8128a3e6ff5f635c5a0354a1735ecdf50cda4e643273c15bac1adde1","note":"Kalshi settled KXETHD-26OCT1417-T2419.99 NO at 2414.50","type":"kalshi_eth","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,420 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791991359191,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2414.5,"resolvedAt":1792015655925,"committedAt":1791990464502},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_eth:KXETHD-26OCT1417-T2459.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxethd","why":"Base rate 50%, threshold 0.59% below spot, about -0.39 expected moves away, spot fresh, downward momentum but below 0.5× volatility, so moderate downward adjustment.","hash":"01e16d114fb0a5678349f00c9fabd7cfbe5361b156a83e04da8d46dd5f3bf9aa","note":"Kalshi settled KXETHD-26OCT1417-T2459.99 NO at 2414.50","type":"kalshi_eth","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will Ether be at or above $2,460 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791984159539,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Ether at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":2414.5,"resolvedAt":1792015655914,"committedAt":1791983264532},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T83249.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 50%, threshold 0.104% above spot but well within 1 expected move (1.81%), slight positive 24h momentum, fresh spot, so slight upward adjustment from base rate.","hash":"c239f4261c4f9fcf11dbb5009490a2e856a21f78bb67c08ef3e448792c0cf966","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T83249.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $83,250 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791922960694,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655901,"committedAt":1791922065822},{"p":0.38,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T81999.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 46.6%, threshold is 0.074% above spot with 3.9 hours left, about +0.1 expected moves, a small gap; recent 24h momentum is negative and typical hourly volatility requir","hash":"ccb72de429e23c1b1d425d6daaac522e493a064714fd2f5d62422147e8311acc","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T81999.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.1444,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $82,000 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791998560115,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655890,"committedAt":1791997683764},{"p":0.46,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T81749.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 46.6%, threshold is just 0.006% below spot, well within expected move of 0.87%, momentum is slightly negative over 24h but below volatility threshold, reference is fre","hash":"e4995ef46e788b79ee7dc7d81d712aac7e94893833eb813fb2d17db1e12dfde4","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T81749.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.2116,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,750 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791991359191,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655880,"committedAt":1791990464491},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T82249.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 46.6%, threshold is 0.15 expected moves above spot, recent negative 24h momentum but below volatility threshold, so slight downward adjustment from base.","hash":"34e60506d40a6a34ebd534ae89167779f3c70a1069875bb5bf9371d419ce8494","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T82249.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $82,250 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791987761860,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655868,"committedAt":1791986866237},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T82499.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate 46.6%, threshold is 0.19% below spot, about -0.19 expected moves away, spot fresh, slight downward momentum but below 0.5× volatility, so small downward adjustment.","hash":"1f77c174fa88068a927c94f3e432470c865d66476abef3ae67bc8a4278a0956f","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T82499.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.17639999999999997,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $82,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791984159539,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655856,"committedAt":1791983264516},{"p":0.44,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T82999.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 46.6%; threshold is slightly below spot by 0.022%, well within the expected move of 1.15%; recent 24h change is slightly negative; reference price is fresh; time to fi","hash":"7a40d0db170d8a349edf5e9ec8577f570d0b0c4cc555f3f3697d23ee09eaa8f3","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T82999.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.1936,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $83,000 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791973359633,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655845,"committedAt":1791972464912},{"p":0.56,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T83499.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 46.6%, threshold is slightly below spot by 0.086%, well within 0.5 expected moves (1.51%), spot is fresh, and 16.9 hours remain with mild positive 24h momentum, so sli","hash":"fcd44ba91428cde4afe07b0ae99720b3fbb2ffcbb61560517bddad2db3687758","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T83499.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $83,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791951758889,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655834,"committedAt":1791950864452},{"p":0.56,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T83749.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 46.6%, threshold is 0.13% above spot but well within 1.56 expected moves, recent 24h change is positive but below momentum threshold, reference price is fresh, so slig","hash":"06185712c50dedf678fc0727f3dad77afb924a2de94464ae832b78957ae9599a","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T83749.99 NO at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.31360000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $83,750 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791948160140,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655823,"committedAt":1791947265270},{"p":0.42,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_btc:KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T81499.99","gen":52,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcd","why":"Base rate is 46.6%, threshold is 0.079% below spot which is about -0.13 expected moves, recent 24h change is negative but below momentum threshold, reference is fresh, 2.9 hours re","hash":"a048c8724268b63e055052cdedbb1c4c284869669fde278a461c1955cae751cf","note":"Kalshi settled KXBTCD-26OCT1417-T81499.99 YES at 81711.75","type":"kalshi_btc","brier":0.3364000000000001,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,500 at 5pm ET on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1792002159686,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin at 5pm ET","resolveAt":1792012500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81711.75,"resolvedAt":1792015655799,"committedAt":1792001265546},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T21","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 49% but threshold is exactly at reference price, spot is slightly above reference with minimal change, typical daily move is moderate, and 24 hours remain; proximity","hash":"22bad5a38c60fb5724f625d8861abc8eeb4a5a35b199c72d226528eb0175c73b","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,676.72","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,339.65 on Coinbase at 21:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791926560303,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792011900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81676.72,"resolvedAt":1792012055889,"committedAt":1791925661847},{"p":0.4,"hn":null,"id":"ust10y:2026-10-13","gen":52,"url":"https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve","why":"Base rate 48%, recent 1d and 5d changes negative, no sustained momentum over 3 hours, and unchanged yield counts as NO, so probability below base rate.","hash":"90827f18a65c4188dca4f2f6fb4daedd7cd8e8f300e2691dc9d0058a5ea3c4fc","note":"The 10-year yield for Oct 14 was 5.19%","type":"ust10y","brier":0.16000000000000003,"field":"markets","title":"Will the next 10-year Treasury yield Treasury publishes after Oct 13 be above 5.21%?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791925660694,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"10-year Treasury yield","resolveAt":1791958060694,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":5.19,"resolvedAt":1792008456961,"committedAt":1791922065870},{"p":0.49,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T20","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate 48.9%, price slightly down -0.052% this hour, typical daily move 1.68%, threshold close, so near coin flip with slight downward momentum, probability near base rate.","hash":"0adf64215d357f0e88123f2bcc7f201614d020eb11bcca44d3f0879f16d4391b","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,726.97","type":"btc_day","brier":0.24009999999999998,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,206.49 on Coinbase at 20:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791922960694,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792008300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81726.97,"resolvedAt":1792008456941,"committedAt":1791922065853},{"p":0.49,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T19","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 49% with the threshold exactly at reference price, minimal momentum (0.068% change) well within typical daily move, fresh spot price, and 24 hours to resolution sugg","hash":"28281841a91b11fc1c6c823c2bd39366b51583e875c422b1e56b8c75e8191bf6","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,621.18","type":"btc_day","brier":0.24009999999999998,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,068.24 on Coinbase at 19:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791919360411,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792004700000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81621.18,"resolvedAt":1792004855777,"committedAt":1791918463632},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T18","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 48%, but threshold is just above current price with only 0.25% move so far, less than half a typical daily move; momentum is slightly positive but weak and reference","hash":"148826c8e574a033b2947243ca09fd4835b083e9e8e952c117c13003cb579d39","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,499.99","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,001.03 on Coinbase at 18:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791915760197,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1792001100000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81499.99,"resolvedAt":1792001256418,"committedAt":1791914865324},{"p":0.55,"hn":null,"id":"poly:5407346","gen":52,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-14-2026","why":"Base rate 50%, market price not shown but volume moderate and 6.9 hours left; slight positive momentum in BTC price over 24h but close to base rate with limited time and no direct ","hash":"57f6b9b653428053c48ca8e040cbd61d7c8c0c46b8d20b3e77e346668038ee5b","note":"Polymarket resolved NO","type":"poly","brier":0.30250000000000005,"field":"markets","title":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791972458787,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, finance and crypto","resolveAt":1791976058787,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":0,"resolvedAt":1791997655839,"committedAt":1791968860601},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T17","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 48%, but the spot is slightly below the reference price with a small negative intrahour move; the threshold is at the reference price, so proximity is neutral; momentu","hash":"6f56756a3808fec3a47f9c61ac8d1a5a757d55edfc1e0862bfec5b7e4b7aaa51","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,924.09","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,284.15 on Coinbase at 17:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791912161577,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1791997500000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81924.09,"resolvedAt":1791997655824,"committedAt":1791911267911},{"p":0.48,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T16","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate near 48%, threshold at reference price so distance is zero expected moves, slight positive momentum with 0.07% change this hour but within typical volatility, fresh refer","hash":"0bdf001934573a9cf0a23dccc99bae8cb4e93c74cc13f250d6d567b0102b1ed9","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,545.28","type":"btc_day","brier":0.2304,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,337.53 on Coinbase at 16:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791908560445,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1791993900000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81545.28,"resolvedAt":1791994056446,"committedAt":1791907667669},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"btc_day:2026-10-13T15","gen":52,"url":"https://exchange.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-USD","why":"Base rate is 47.4%, but the threshold is exactly the reference price, so distance is zero expected moves; recent 15-minute momentum is slightly positive but small; reference price ","hash":"3665229d0953fd6b88a4d82e92b33346b3a9a20da239b053bfce990b9ac6548d","note":"Coinbase BTC-USD opened at $81,868.62","type":"btc_day","brier":0.0529,"field":"markets","title":"Will Bitcoin trade above $83,432.08 on Coinbase at 15:00 UTC on Oct 14?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791904959200,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Bitcoin, 24 hours","resolveAt":1791990300000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":81868.62,"resolvedAt":1791990455886,"committedAt":1791904065794},{"p":0.23,"hn":null,"id":"poly_pol:5167148","gen":21,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-october-2026","why":"There has been a low frequency of Russian strikes specifically targeting Kyiv recently, and the event is more than three years in the future, reducing immediate risk likelihood.","hash":"2548502b2547b4dd6c3114433bbb963a7df2e530970a0fd88cfa6196c51093f8","note":"Polymarket resolved YES","type":"poly_pol","brier":0.5929,"field":"policy","title":"Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?","domain":null,"outcome":1,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791608858949,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Polymarket, politics","resolveAt":1791612458949,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":1,"resolvedAt":1791806856668,"committedAt":1791605263569},{"p":0.65,"hn":null,"id":"kalshi_pol:KXAPRPOTUS-26OCT09","gen":21,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaprpotus","why":"The recent approval ratings are consistently above the 38.2% threshold, and polling averages tend to move slowly, making it likely the rating will remain at or above 38.2% in 4.2 d","hash":"6d0cea05bc83771dabed6a9e5167a9878de5b3636ca8a73053c38352b23c50c7","note":"Kalshi settled the approval reading at 37.8","type":"kalshi_pol","brier":0.42250000000000004,"field":"policy","title":"Will the President's approval rating be 38.2% or higher in the RealClearPolitics average on Oct 9?","domain":null,"outcome":0,"scoreAt":null,"closesAt":1791194859542,"postedAt":null,"typeName":"Presidential approval","resolveAt":1791559800000,"commentsAt":null,"finalScore":null,"finalValue":37.8,"resolvedAt":1791562056348,"committedAt":1791191262674}],"evolution":{"nextNote":"cooling down","minResolved":60},"nextTickAt":1792091220000,"calibration":[{"n":1234,"hi":0.1,"lo":0,"freq":0.05834683954619125,"meanP":0.04994327390599659},{"n":1114,"hi":0.2,"lo":0.1,"freq":0.15170556552962297,"meanP":0.1275044883303417},{"n":606,"hi":0.3,"lo":0.2,"freq":0.3465346534653465,"meanP":0.23481848184818502},{"n":374,"hi":0.4,"lo":0.3,"freq":0.45187165775401067,"meanP":0.3344385026737948},{"n":478,"hi":0.5,"lo":0.4,"freq":0.41841004184100417,"meanP":0.43895397489539717},{"n":481,"hi":0.6,"lo":0.5,"freq":0.49480249480249483,"meanP":0.5349896049896076},{"n":204,"hi":0.7,"lo":0.6,"freq":0.6176470588235294,"meanP":0.6374509803921575},{"n":122,"hi":0.8,"lo":0.7,"freq":0.7950819672131147,"meanP":0.7440983606557382},{"n":67,"hi":0.9,"lo":0.8,"freq":0.835820895522388,"meanP":0.8444776119402992},{"n":47,"hi":1,"lo":0.9,"freq":0.9787234042553191,"meanP":0.9444680851063827}],"generatedAt":1792087665029,"generations":[{"n":48,"gen":68,"field":"tech","parent":65,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~50%, wiki_attention ~15%, applying domain reputation and early momentum to adjust forecasts while avoiding overfitting sparse data.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, increase forecasts if points exceed max(12, age_minutes/5) with at least minimal comment presence (>0), as point growth combined with some engagement better predicts success; avoid boosts for zero comments unless points > 20.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with calibrated boosts: ranks 1-5 strongly increase forecasts if points > 60; ranks 6-10 moderately increase if points > 80; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points exceed 100, reflecting empirical front-page engagement patterns.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost only for consistently high-traffic, reputable domains; for lesser-known or personal domains, require points > 20 plus recent positive momentum in both points and comments to apply the boost.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.25 as a positive signal only if points > 30 and comments > 12, otherwise treat comments as neutral to avoid over-weighting sparse comments.\n6. Sharply discount forecasts for older hn100 (>75 mins) and hn300 (>130 mins) stories lacking at least 20% points growth in the last 30 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement strongly lowers forecasts.\n7. For hf_trending, require absolute likes, downloads, and trending score growth over past 48 hours; increase minimum score gap threshold to >50 to reduce false positives and focus on strong momentum and high absolute engagement.\n8. For wiki_attention, increase forecasts when daily views show sustained growth or remain in top 5 ranks with stable or increasing trends; sharply discount when views drop >15% day-over-day.\n9. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, engagement, and domain reputation, focusing on reducing overconfidence in low-engagement and low-reputation stories and capturing early momentum signals more robustly.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792073298450,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Added wiki_attention base rates and clearer momentum criteria; required minimal comments before boosting hn100/hn300 forecasts to reduce false positives on low engagement; raised hf_trending score gap threshold to avoid overforecasting weakly trending models; refined domain credibility boosts to nee","championBrier":0.13769791666666667,"challengerBrier":0.14345624999999998},{"n":48,"gen":67,"field":"sports","parent":64,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Update base rates with league and question-type specificity: home ML rates as NFL/NBA/NHL at 54%, MLB 53%, CFB 60%; MLS and soccer draws at 25% (lowered from 30% due to overforecasting draws); spreads/runlines near 50% with adjustments for league margin patterns.\n2. For team quality, weight recent form more heavily (70% recent, 30% full-season) across all leagues to capture current strength, using ELO/power rankings with home advantage (+4% NBA, +3% NHL, +5% NFL).\n3. For MLS_ML and UCL_ML, treat draws as partial evidence against home win but apply nuanced adjustments: increase home ML forecast by 10% when home form strong and away road data limited, avoid forecasts below 0.3 unless strong counter signals.\n4. For spread/runline forecasts, require minimum 7 recent games with margin data; regress to league average (0.5) when insufficient; set minimum forecast floor at 0.4 for favorites early season or low info, but allow wider range (0.3-0.7) in postseason or strong signals.\n5. For sports_total, integrate pace, recent 7-game offensive/defensive efficiencies, and venue with weighted season stage; cap forecasts at 0.6 to avoid overconfidence but allow down to 0.4 floor to reflect low scoring environments.\n6. For soccer_draw, blend base draw rate (25%) with weighted recent draw frequency (80%) and head-to-head draws (20%), lowering overall draw forecasts to reduce false positives.\n7. Incorporate injury and roster effects only when confirmed starting changes exist; increase rest effect emphasis in NBA/NHL back-to-backs; limit adjustments for short lead times (<12h) to +/-5%.\n8. Constrain early season or low-information forecasts within 0.35-0.65; allow wider ranges (0.25-0.75) only when multiple strong signals align in postseason or high-info contexts.\n9. Provide transparent explanations emphasizing cautious margin adjustments, stronger weighting on current form, moderated draw and total score forecasts, and calibrated minimum floors to reduce underestimation and overconfidence.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792069703027,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Lowered draw base rates and increased weighting on recent form improve calibration, especially for soccer draws and UCL ML; adjusted minimum floors and forecast caps for spreads and totals reduce overconfidence and underestimation seen in preseason NBA and high-variance totals; nuanced treatment of ","championBrier":0.26176666666666665,"challengerBrier":0.26566249999999997},{"n":48,"gen":66,"field":"markets","parent":52,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use base rates per question type as priors, updating only with signals exceeding 2× typical volatility or noise in recent periods to reduce overreaction to weak signals.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.8 expected moves, being more conservative near thresholds.\n3. Apply momentum asymmetrically: increase probability by up to +10% for sustained positive momentum over past 6 hours, but limit negative momentum adjustment to -5% to avoid overweighting short-term dips.\n4. For Treasury yield questions, require momentum sustained over 4 consecutive hourly intervals exceeding 0.6× typical hourly volatility before adjusting forecasts.\n5. Always use the freshest intraday reference price within 30 minutes; if unavailable, lean strongly toward base rate with confidence discount.\n6. For event/deadline markets, apply a stronger status quo bias near expiration, reducing probability changes by 70% in the final 15% of time remaining.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within a 20%-80% range to avoid extreme confidence; revert to base rates when signals conflict or are weak.\n8. Explain forecasts neutrally citing: base rate, threshold distance in expected moves, momentum magnitude and direction, reference price freshness, and time to resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792062504678,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased signal thresholds and more conservative adjustments reduce overconfidence and underestimation of base rates, especially for BTC and macro markets, improving calibration and reducing large misses.","championBrier":0.25490416666666676,"challengerBrier":0.25215833333333343},{"n":48,"gen":65,"field":"tech","parent":53,"champion":true,"doctrine":"1. Use monthly-updated question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~50%, adjusting forecasts early with momentum signals while avoiding overreliance on sparse data.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, increase forecasts when points exceed max(12, age_minutes/5), even if comments are low or zero, as point growth is the strongest early signal; lower the threshold slightly to catch missed cases.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with calibrated boosts: ranks 1-5 strongly increase forecasts if points > 60; ranks 6-10 moderately increase if points > 80; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points exceed 100, reflecting stronger correlation at higher point thresholds.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost only for consistently high-traffic, reputable domains; for lesser-known domains, require points > 20 and recent positive momentum in points growth to apply the boost.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.25 as a positive signal only if points > 30 and comments > 12, to avoid overweighting sparse comments; otherwise, treat comments as neutral.\n6. For older stories (>75 mins for hn100, >130 mins for hn300), sharply discount forecasts unless points have grown at least 20% in the last 30 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement strongly lowers forecast.\n7. For hf_trending, require absolute likes, downloads, and trending score growth over past 48 hours, but lower the score gap threshold to >30 to predict persistence in top 10, allowing earlier identification.\n8. Regularly recalibrate with segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, engagement, and domain reputation, focusing on reducing overconfidence in low-engagement stories and missed early momentum signals.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1792026493580,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Lowered point thresholds and tightened age cutoffs for hn100/hn300 to catch missed momentum; raised front-page point thresholds for boosts; required stronger domain and comment signals; lowered hf_trending score gap to detect persistence earlier; overall improved sensitivity to early point growth an","championBrier":0.10432083333333332,"challengerBrier":0.10103333333333332},{"n":48,"gen":64,"field":"sports","parent":58,"champion":true,"doctrine":"1. Begin with updated league and question-type specific base rates: home ML rates (NFL, NBA, NHL at 54%, MLB 53%, CFB 60%), soccer and MLS draw rates at 30% reflecting higher draw frequency observed, and spread/runline cover rates near 50%, adjusting for historical margin cover patterns by league.\n2. Use weighted recent performance and full-season data for team quality, emphasizing 60% recent and 40% full-season for NFL and College Football to reduce overreaction while incorporating more stable signals; apply ELO/power rankings with home advantage (+4% NBA, +3% NHL, +5% NFL).\n3. For spread/runline questions, require a minimum of 7 recent games with consistent margin data before deviating from baseline; otherwise regress towards league average cover to avoid overly low forecasts. Increase minimum forecast floor to 0.4 for favorites in all leagues and question types during preseason and early season to prevent underestimation.\n4. For total score questions, integrate pace and offensive/defensive efficiencies over the last 7 games, weighting venue and season stage; adjust baseline totals upward for confirmed high-scoring contexts (late season, playoffs) but cap maximum forecast at 0.6 to reduce overconfidence.\n5. For soccer draws, combine base draw rates with head-to-head draw frequency and recent team draw tendencies, weighting recent form at 80% to better capture draw likelihood.\n6. Incorporate injury and roster effects only when starting status changes are confirmed; increase emphasis on rest effects in NBA and NHL back-to-back games, and cautiously adjust probabilities in short lead times (<12 hours).\n7. Constrain forecasts within 0.35-0.65 in low-information or early season contexts, allowing wider ranges (0.25-0.75) only when multiple strong signals align in postseason or high-information contexts.\n8. For Champions League ML (UCL_ML), treat draws as partial evidence and adjust forecasts upwards by 5% when home teams have stronger recent form and away teams have limited road data, avoiding too low forecasts for home wins.\n9. Provide clear explanations focusing on cautious margin adjustments, stronger minimum probability floors across all leagues and question types, higher weighting on recent consistent data, and moderated total score extremes to improve calibration and reduce underestimation.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1792022905046,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased minimum probability floors and draw rate for soccer, adjusted weighting between recent and full-season data, expanded forecast floors and ranges, and nuanced treatment of Champions League home ML forecasts address systematic underestimation and calibration issues revealed by worst misses.","championBrier":0.22891249999999994,"challengerBrier":0.21243125000000007},{"n":48,"gen":63,"field":"markets","parent":52,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use empirical base rates per question type as priors, adjusting forecasts only when signals exceed 1× typical volatility or noise to capture meaningful moves while avoiding overreaction.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if the threshold lies beyond ±0.3 expected moves to increase sensitivity to relevant price differentials.\n3. For momentum, use asymmetric adjustments: increase probability by up to +15% if recent price changes are positive and statistically significant over the past 6 hours; decrease by up to -10% if negative, reflecting stronger momentum effect in upward moves observed.\n4. Require reference prices to be no older than 2 hours; if older, discount confidence by 30% and pull forecast 20% toward base rate to mitigate stale data bias.\n5. For Treasury yield questions, require momentum sustained over 2 consecutive hourly intervals exceeding 0.3× typical hourly volatility before adjusting probabilities, allowing quicker response to yield shifts.\n6. Apply a stronger status quo bias near expiration: reduce probability adjustments by 70% in the final 15% of time remaining to avoid overconfidence in last-minute moves.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within a 20%-80% range to prevent extreme confidence; when signals conflict or weak, revert closer to base rates.\n8. Always provide neutral explanations citing base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, momentum magnitude and direction, reference price freshness, and time to resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1792015702994,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced volatility thresholds and tightened calibration better capture true signals especially for btc_day questions, introduced asymmetric momentum adjustments reflecting observed upward momentum impact, lengthened freshness window slightly while penalizing stale data more, and applied stronger exp","championBrier":0.26514374999999996,"challengerBrier":0.28624375},{"n":48,"gen":62,"field":"tech","parent":53,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated monthly from recent outcomes: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~50%, adjusting forecasts early with momentum signals cautiously.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, raise forecasts significantly once points exceed max(15, age_minutes/3) to avoid premature boosts from low points; require sustained growth of at least 20% in the last 30 minutes after 60 minutes old to maintain or increase forecasts.\n3. Incorporate front-page rank for hn300 only if points exceed 50: ranks 1-5 strongly boost forecasts; ranks 6-10 moderate boost; ranks >10 reduce forecasts unless points exceed 90.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost only for well-known, high-traffic domains with points > 20; for unknown or niche domains, require points > 30 to consider boosting forecast.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.25 as a positive signal only if points > 40 and comments > 10 to avoid overweighting sparse or early comments.\n6. Discount forecasts sharply for older hn100 (>90 minutes) and hn300 (>150 minutes) stories unless points have grown by at least 20% in the last 30 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement sharply lowers forecast.\n7. For hf_trending, require a substantial score gap (>100) to 11th rank to predict persistence in top 10; consider absolute likes and downloads growth over past 48 hours but discount older models (>30 days) with stagnant or declining trending scores.\n8. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, and engagement, focusing on correcting overconfidence in low-point, low-comment, and older stories.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791979702455,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised point thresholds and growth requirements before boosting forecasts to reduce false positives on low-engagement or early-stage stories; tightened domain and comment signals; increased hf_trending stability criteria to reduce overconfident false positives on older or less stable models.","championBrier":0.13675625,"challengerBrier":0.1789145833333333},{"n":48,"gen":61,"field":"sports","parent":58,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with refined league and question-type base rates: home ML win rates adjusted to 55% NFL/NBA/NHL, 54% MLB; soccer draw base rate increased to 30% reflecting recent data; spread/runline cover rates centered near 50%, with minor league-specific calibration.\n2. Compute team strength using 60% recent form (last 5 games) and 40% full-season data, applying Elo or power rankings and incorporating home advantage (+4% NBA, +3% NHL, +5% NFL), reducing overreaction to short-term noise.\n3. For spread/runline forecasts, require at least 10 recent games with consistent margin data before diverging from baseline; otherwise, regress strongly toward league average cover to avoid underestimation.\n4. For total score questions, utilize pace and offensive/defensive efficiency metrics over the last 7 games, adjusted for venue, and increase total forecast only when both teams show sustained high scoring trends or in playoff/late-season contexts.\n5. Implement dynamic minimum probability floors of 0.45 for favorites in ML, spread, and runline bets across NFL, NBA, and NHL during preseason and early season to prevent underforecasting.\n6. Enhance soccer draw probability by combining base draw rate with weighted head-to-head draws (weight 50%) and recent team draw frequency (weight 50%), emphasizing recent form at 80%.\n7. Integrate injury and roster changes only when confirmed starting lineup changes exist; emphasize rest and back-to-back effects in NBA and NHL, with cautious adjustments for short lead times (<12 hours).\n8. Constrain forecasts in low-information or early season contexts to a narrower band of 0.35-0.65, allowing wider ranges (0.25-0.75) only when multiple strong indicators converge in postseason or high-information scenarios.\n9. Provide clearer explanations emphasizing conservative margin adjustments, stronger probability floors, and more rigorous reliance on consistent recent margin data to improve calibration and reduce systematic underestimation.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791976099333,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased minimum probability floors and stronger regression to league averages for spreads/runlines address underestimation; improved soccer draw modeling and refined base rates better capture true probabilities; overall, the doctrine is more cautious in low-information contexts and more responsive","championBrier":0.23006250000000003,"challengerBrier":0.23656041666666663},{"n":48,"gen":60,"field":"markets","parent":52,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type base rates as priors, updating only with signals exceeding 2× typical volatility or noise to reduce overreaction to weak signals.\n2. For price threshold questions, measure distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±1 expected move, improving sensitivity to realistic price shifts.\n3. Apply momentum asymmetrically: increase probabilities more for sustained positive momentum over 6 hours, but reduce downward adjustments to no more than 5%, reflecting observed positive drift bias.\n4. Require freshest intraday reference price within 2 hours; if older, discount forecast confidence by 30% and revert closer to base rate.\n5. For event/deadline markets, apply stronger status quo bias by halving probability changes in final 20% of time remaining, reflecting uncertainty near expiration.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, require momentum sustained over 4 consecutive hourly intervals exceeding 0.75× typical hourly volatility before adjusting forecasts.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within 20%-80% to avoid extremes and reduce overconfidence; when signals conflict or weak, move probability toward base rate by 40%.\n8. Explain forecasts clearly citing: base rate, threshold distance in expected moves, direction and strength of recent momentum, reference price freshness, and time to resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791968907774,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased volatility thresholds and expected move margins prevent premature adjustments; asymmetric momentum caps reflect positive drift; relaxed freshness window balances data availability and reliability; stronger status quo bias near deadlines reduces miscalibration; tighter probability calibrati","championBrier":0.25320625000000013,"challengerBrier":0.2598541666666667},{"n":48,"gen":59,"field":"tech","parent":53,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated monthly: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, adjusting early forecasts with momentum signals while avoiding overreliance on very low points or comments.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, increase forecasts when points exceed max(12, age_minutes/5) rather than max(10, age_minutes/4), to better capture early growth; also raise forecasts if points ≥10 with zero comments but recent points growth >10% in last 15 minutes.\n3. Incorporate domain credibility more granularly: boost forecasts for well-known domains with points ≥10 and moderate momentum, but allow smaller, niche credible domains to contribute if points ≥15 and momentum strong.\n4. For hn300, apply front-page rank boosts as follows: ranks 1-5 boost forecasts significantly if points >40; ranks 6-10 moderate boost if points >50; ranks >10 reduce forecast unless points >80 and momentum strong.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.2 as a positive signal only if points >20 and comments >5 to avoid overweighting sparse comments; also factor comment growth rate over last 30 minutes.\n6. For stories older than 90 (hn100) or 150 (hn300) minutes, discount forecasts sharply if points growth in last 30 minutes <10%; plateauing or declining engagement lowers forecast.\n7. For hn100/hn300, include recent points growth rate over last 15-30 minutes as a key momentum indicator; require at least 10-15% growth to sustain or raise forecast.\n8. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, points, comments, and domain credibility, focusing on reducing underprediction of stories with low early engagement but strong momentum.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791932896915,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted early points thresholds and momentum measures to better capture fast-growing but initially low-engagement stories; refined domain credibility and comment signals to avoid missing underpredicted cases while retaining caution on sparse data.","championBrier":0.14305416666666668,"challengerBrier":0.14295833333333333},{"n":48,"gen":58,"field":"sports","parent":55,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with league and question-type specific base rates: home ML rates (NFL, NBA, NHL at 54%, MLB 53%, CFB 60%), soccer and MLS draw rates at 25%, and spread/runline cover rates near 50%, adjusting for historical margin cover patterns by league.\n2. Use weighted recent performance and full-season data for team quality, emphasizing 70% recent and 30% full-season for NFL and College Football to reduce overreaction; apply ELO/power rankings with home advantage (+4% NBA, +3% NHL, +5% NFL).\n3. For spread/runline questions, require a minimum of 7 recent games with consistent margin data before deviating from baseline; otherwise regress towards league average cover to avoid overly low forecasts.\n4. For total score questions, integrate pace and offensive/defensive efficiencies over the last 5 to 7 games, with venue and season stage weighting; adjust baseline totals upward only for confirmed high-scoring contexts (late season, playoffs).\n5. Implement a dynamic probability floor of 0.40 for favorites in ML and spread/runline bets in NFL and NBA preseason and regular seasons, increasing to 0.45 in low-information scenarios to prevent underestimation.\n6. For soccer draws, combine base draw rates with head-to-head draw frequency and recent team draw tendencies, weighting recent form at 70% to better capture draw likelihood.\n7. Incorporate injury and roster effects only when starting status changes are confirmed; increase emphasis on rest effects in NBA and NHL back-to-back games, and cautiously adjust probabilities in short lead times (<12 hours).\n8. Constrain forecasts within 0.3-0.7 in low-information or early season contexts, allowing wider ranges (0.2-0.8) only when multiple strong signals align in postseason or preseason.\n9. Provide clear explanations focusing on cautious margin adjustments, stronger minimum probability floors, and enhanced integration of recent consistent margin data to improve calibration and reduce underestimation.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791929296805,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised minimum forecast floors, increased required margin data for spread/runline adjustments, and heavier weighting on recent draw tendencies address systematic underestimation in favorites and low probability forecasts, improving calibration especially in preseason and low-information scenarios.","championBrier":0.20740000000000003,"challengerBrier":0.20253124999999997},{"n":48,"gen":57,"field":"markets","parent":52,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates as priors, updating only with signals exceeding 2× typical volatility or noise to avoid overreacting to normal fluctuations.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate threshold distance in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)); adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±1 expected move, reducing false signals.\n3. Apply momentum asymmetrically: increase forecast probability moderately (up to +15%) if recent price changes over 6 hours exceed +1× typical volatility, but reduce forecast probability more cautiously (down to -5%) for negative momentum, reflecting observed asymmetry.\n4. Always use the freshest intraday reference price within 30 minutes; if unavailable, reduce confidence and revert forecast closer to base rate.\n5. For event/deadline markets, apply a stronger status quo bias near expiration, halving probability changes in the last 20% of time remaining.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, require momentum sustained over 4 consecutive hourly intervals exceeding 0.75× typical hourly volatility before adjusting forecasts.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within 20%-80% range to prevent extreme confidence; when signals conflict or weak, lean toward base rates.\n8. Explain forecasts neutrally citing: base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, momentum magnitude and directional asymmetry, reference price freshness, and time to resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791922111124,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Stronger volatility thresholds and wider expected move buffers prevent underestimating positive outcomes seen especially in btc_day; asymmetric momentum adjustments reflect positive momentum's stronger predictive power; tighter reference price freshness and increased status quo bias near resolution ","championBrier":0.23336250000000006,"challengerBrier":0.24765625000000005},{"n":48,"gen":56,"field":"tech","parent":53,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated weekly from recent outcomes: hn100 ~25%, hn300 ~15%, hf_trending ~50%, adjusting forecasts early with momentum signals cautiously to reflect observed higher base rates.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, raise forecasts significantly once points exceed max(8, age_minutes/5), even if comments are zero, as early point growth strongly predicts eventual score milestones.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with a tiered boost: ranks 1-5 strongly boost forecasts if points > 40; ranks 6-10 moderate boost if points > 50; ranks >10 reduce forecast unless points exceed 90, reflecting observed thresholds.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost primarily for well-known, high-traffic domains; for unknown or niche domains, require points > 10 (lowered from 15) to consider boosting forecast.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.2 as a positive signal only if points > 20 and comments > 5, to reduce overweighting sparse comments but allow earlier signal from comments.\n6. For older stories (>70 minutes for hn100, >120 minutes for hn300), discount forecasts unless points have grown by at least 10% in the last 20 minutes; plateauing or declining engagement sharply lowers forecast.\n7. For hf_trending, rely on absolute likes, downloads, and trending score growth over past 48 hours; require a score gap > 100 to 11th rank to predict persistence in top 10, tightening gap threshold.\n8. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, and engagement, emphasizing correction of overconfidence on low-comment, low-point stories and updating base rates more frequently.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791878893651,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased base rates and lowered thresholds for points and domain boosts address systematic underforecasting on low-comment, moderate-point stories; tighter front-page rank and trending score thresholds improve precision; earlier discounting of plateauing stories reduces overconfidence in stalled po","championBrier":0.15977291666666668,"challengerBrier":0.18501250000000005},{"n":48,"gen":55,"field":"sports","parent":49,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with league and question-type specific base rates: home team ML rates (NFL, NBA, NHL at 54%, MLB 53%, CFB 60%), draw rates for soccer and MLS at 25%, and baseline spread/runline cover rates near 50%, adjusting these by historical margin cover frequencies per league.\n2. Weight team quality heavily on recent performance but extend the window for NFL and College Football to 8 games (70% recent, 30% full season) to reduce overreaction; continue to use ELO/power rankings with home advantage per league (+4% NBA, +3% NHL, +5% NFL).\n3. For runline/spread questions, require at least 5 recent games of consistent margin data before adjusting probabilities away from baseline; otherwise, regress towards league-average cover rate to avoid extreme low forecasts.\n4. For total score questions, integrate pace, offensive/defensive efficiencies over last 5 games, weighted by venue and season stage; adjust baseline totals upward only in confirmed high-scoring environments (late season, playoffs).\n5. Avoid forecasting probabilities below 0.35 for favorites covering spreads or ML to prevent underestimation, especially in NFL and NHL regular season; this floor should be dynamic based on sample size and information quality.\n6. For soccer draws, combine base draw rates with both head-to-head draw frequency and recent team draw tendencies, weighting recent form at 60%.\n7. Incorporate injury and roster changes with clear thresholds: full effect only if confirmed starting status changes; emphasize rest effects in back-to-back games especially in NBA and NHL.\n8. Allow probability outputs to span wider ranges (0.2-0.8) in postseason or preseason when signals are strong but constrain forecasts within 0.3-0.7 in low-information or early season contexts to reduce overconfidence.\n9. Provide explanations focusing on stable base rates, extended recent form evaluation, cautious margin adjustments, and clear injury/rest impact to improve calibration and transparency.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791860900392,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"The revised doctrine increases the sample size and stability for recent form, raises minimum probabilities for favorites in spreads and ML to avoid underestimation, requires stronger evidence before deviating from baseline spreads, and better integrates draw data and injury impact, all aimed at redu","championBrier":0.2565541666666667,"challengerBrier":0.2522479166666666},{"n":48,"gen":54,"field":"markets","parent":52,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use base rates per question type as priors, updating only with signals exceeding 2× typical volatility or noise to avoid overreacting to minor fluctuations.\n2. For price threshold questions, measure threshold distance in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±1 expected move; within ±1 expected move, lean closer to base rates.\n3. Apply momentum asymmetrically: increase probability up to +15% for sustained positive momentum over 6 hours, but limit downside adjustments to -5% due to observed underestimation of upward moves.\n4. Always use the freshest intraday reference price within 30 minutes; if unavailable, reduce forecast confidence significantly and revert to base rate.\n5. For event/deadline markets, apply a mild status quo bias reducing probability changes by 30% in the final 20% of time remaining to reflect reduced volatility near resolution.\n6. For Treasury yield and similar questions, require momentum sustained over 3 consecutive hourly intervals exceeding 1× typical hourly volatility before adjusting forecasts.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within a 20%-80% range to avoid extreme confidence; when signals conflict or are weak, revert to base rates.\n8. Explain forecasts citing base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, momentum magnitude and direction (accounting for asymmetry), reference price freshness, and time to resolution effects.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791857296663,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased volatility thresholds and asymmetric momentum adjustments better capture upward price bias and reduce overconfidence, while tighter freshness criteria and adjusted time decay improve calibration and responsiveness.","championBrier":0.25076250000000005,"challengerBrier":0.2667562500000001},{"n":48,"gen":53,"field":"tech","parent":50,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated monthly from recent outcomes: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~50%, wiki_attention ~15%, adjusting forecasts early with momentum signals cautiously.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, raise forecasts significantly if points exceed max(10, age_minutes/4), even if comments are low or zero, as points growth is a stronger early signal than comments.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with a nuanced approach: ranks 1-5 strongly boost forecasts if points > 40; ranks 6-10 provide moderate boost if points > 60; ranks >10 reduce forecasts moderately unless points exceed 80.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost primarily for well-known, high-traffic domains; for unknown or niche domains, require points > 15 to consider boosting forecast.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.25 as a positive signal only if points > 25 and comments > 8 to avoid overweighting sparse comments.\n6. For older stories (>90 minutes for hn100, >150 minutes for hn300), discount forecasts unless points have grown by at least 15% in the last 30 minutes; plateauing engagement sharply lowers forecast.\n7. For wiki_attention, incorporate recent day-over-day percent changes in views cautiously, discounting extreme spikes with low absolute views and considering multi-day trends over single-day jumps.\n8. For hf_trending, rely on absolute likes, downloads, and trending score growth over past 48 hours; require a substantial score gap (>50) to 11th rank to predict persistence in top 10.\n9. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, and engagement, emphasizing correction of overconfidence on low-comment, low-point stories.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791832094699,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced comment thresholds and emphasized points growth corrected misses where points were moderately high but comments low; added wiki_attention base rate and refined attention to percent change to avoid false positives from spikes; nuanced front-page rank handling and stronger hf_trending score ga","championBrier":0.12509791666666667,"challengerBrier":0.11646875},{"n":48,"gen":52,"field":"markets","parent":40,"champion":true,"doctrine":"1. Use base rates per question type as priors, updating only with recent, statistically significant signals exceeding 1.5× typical volatility or noise.\n2. For price threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and adjust probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.5 expected moves, allowing more sensitivity.\n3. Apply momentum symmetrically: adjust probabilities proportional to recent price changes over the past 6 hours, but cap adjustments at ±10% to prevent overconfidence.\n4. Always use the freshest intraday reference price within 1 hour; if unavailable, discount forecast confidence and lean toward base rate.\n5. For event/deadline markets, apply a mild status quo bias near expiration, reducing probability changes by 50% in the final 10% of time remaining.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, require momentum sustained over 3 consecutive hourly intervals exceeding 0.5× typical hourly volatility before adjusting forecasts.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within a 15%-85% range to avoid extreme confidence; lean toward base rates when signals conflict or are weak.\n8. Explain forecasts neutrally citing: base rate, threshold proximity in expected moves, recent momentum magnitude and direction, reference price freshness, and time to resolution effects.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791810500176,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"The revised doctrine increases sensitivity to threshold proximity by lowering the expected move cutoff, symmetrizes momentum impact to correct downside bias and prevent underestimation of positive moves, tightens confidence ranges to reduce overconfidence, and requires sustained momentum for yield f","championBrier":0.333725,"challengerBrier":0.27149791666666667},{"n":48,"gen":51,"field":"sports","parent":49,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use league-specific base rates for home team wins: NFL, NBA, NHL at 54%, MLB at 53%, College Football at 60%; for draws in MLS and soccer, start with historical draw rates ~25%, adjusted by recent team quality and head-to-head draw frequency.\n2. Weight team quality via ELO or power rankings with 70% emphasis on recent 5 games and 30% on full season, to better capture current form and momentum.\n3. Apply home advantage boosts per league with slightly increased margins: e.g., +4% NHL, +5% NBA, and adjust for neutral sites explicitly.\n4. For spread/runline questions, require a minimum of 4 consecutive games with consistent margin trends before adjusting margin forecasts upward; otherwise, regress toward baseline spreads.\n5. For total score questions, integrate pace, offensive/defensive efficiencies over last 5 games, venue effects, and season stage, with special calibration for preseason and early season games to avoid overconfidence.\n6. Set a higher floor (minimum 0.4) for strong favorites in postseason NHL and MLB to reduce underestimation but avoid floor inflation in preseason or low-info settings.\n7. For soccer draw forecasts, combine base draw rates with recent form, head-to-head draw rates, and league-wide draw trends, emphasizing recent trends more.\n8. Incorporate injury, roster changes, and rest days with dynamic weighting that increases importance in late season and postseason.\n9. Avoid narrow probability clustering; allow forecasts to range from 0.2 to 0.85 when strong signals exist, especially in postseason or with clear team quality gaps.\n10. Provide concise explanations highlighting base rates, heavier recent form weighting, home advantage, situational factors (injuries, rest), and league-specific score tendencies.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791806914379,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased emphasis on recent form and margin consistency improved calibration; raising draw forecast sensitivity to head-to-head and recent draws fixed missed draws; stronger home advantage boosts and adjusted floors helped correct underconfident strong favorites; expanding probability range better ","championBrier":0.2703770833333333,"challengerBrier":0.26976666666666665},{"n":48,"gen":50,"field":"tech","parent":45,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated monthly from recent outcomes: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~50%; adjust with momentum signals early but cautiously.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, raise forecasts significantly if points exceed max(15, age_minutes/3) regardless of comments, since misses show comments often lag or stay low; comments > max(3, age_minutes/15) add moderate boost but are not required.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank more aggressively: rank 1-5 adds strong upward adjustment if points > 40, regardless of comments; ranks > 10 reduce forecasts moderately if points < 50.\n4. Apply domain credibility boost primarily for well-known, high-traffic domains; for unknown or niche domains, require points > 20 to boost forecast.\n5. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.25 as a positive signal only if points > 30 and comments > 5 to avoid sparse comment over-weighting.\n6. For older stories (>90 minutes for hn100, >150 minutes for hn300), discount forecasts unless points continue to grow by at least 20% in the last 30 minutes.\n7. Calibrate downward sharply when engagement signals conflict (e.g., high points with zero comments) or if story engagement plateaus early.\n8. For hf_trending, rely more on absolute likes and downloads rather than rank alone; require consistent growth in trending score and downloads over past 24 hours.\n9. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, and engagement to maintain calibration and avoid overconfidence.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791785291194,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted momentum thresholds to rely more on points than comments, reflecting frequent zero-comment misses; incorporated stronger rank effects for hn300; refined domain and ratio signals for better precision; tightened old story discounting based on growth; improved hf_trending signals by including ","championBrier":0.11027500000000005,"challengerBrier":0.10113541666666666},{"n":48,"gen":49,"field":"sports","parent":41,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with league-specific base rates for home team wins: NFL, NBA, NHL at 54%, MLB at 53%, College Football at 60%; for draw probabilities in MLS and soccer, use historical draw rates around 25%, adjusting by team quality.\n2. Adjust probabilities by team quality using ELO ratings or power rankings weighted 60% on recent 5 games and 40% on full season to better capture current form, with home advantage boosts per league (e.g., +3% NHL, +4% NBA).\n3. For runline and spread questions, require consistent recent margin-of-victory trends over at least 3 games to increase margin forecasts; otherwise, lean closer to baseline spreads.\n4. For total score forecasts, combine pace-of-play, offensive and defensive efficiencies over last 3 games, adjusting for venue and season stage, and raise baseline totals probabilities in high-scoring leagues and late season.\n5. Calibrate low-probability forecasts (<40%) by raising minimum forecast to 0.3 for strong favorites in postseason NHL and MLB, but avoid excessive floor inflation in preseason or low-information settings.\n6. For draw forecasts in soccer, use team head-to-head draw frequency and recent match trends, not just base rates.\n7. Avoid clustering probabilities heavily in 0.3-0.7 range; allow wider range (0.2-0.8) to reflect stronger signals, especially in preseason or postseason.\n8. Incorporate injury and roster changes with diminishing weight in late season; emphasize rest days more in back-to-back scenarios.\n9. Provide concise explanations focusing on base rates, recent form weighted more heavily, home advantage, and specific situational factors like injuries and pace adjustments.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791760095382,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Shifted weighting more toward recent form (5 games) for responsiveness and adjusted baseline draw rates for soccer; improved calibration on margins by requiring sustained trends; refined total scoring forecasts with shorter-term metrics; allowed wider probability ranges to reflect confidence; better","championBrier":0.24233541666666672,"challengerBrier":0.2348979166666667},{"n":48,"gen":48,"field":"markets","parent":40,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use base rates per question type as initial probabilities, updating only with strong, fresh signals exceeding typical noise thresholds.\n2. For price-threshold questions, compute distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)); adjust probabilities substantially only if threshold lies beyond ±0.5 expected moves to better capture plausible price swings.\n3. For momentum, incorporate recent (last 6 hours) price changes symmetrically, applying a calibrated scaling factor rather than asymmetric downward bias, as over-penalizing down moves led to underestimation of upward outcomes.\n4. Always use the freshest intraday reference price available within 1 hour; if unavailable, discount stale references by widening probability toward base rate.\n5. In event or deadline markets, apply status quo bias near expiration only if no fresh information contradicts it, else allow momentum and threshold signals to dominate.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, require momentum sustained over multiple short intervals (e.g., 3 consecutive readings) before adjusting forecasts.\n7. Calibrate final probabilities within a 5%-95% range to allow more confident forecasts when justified by strong signals.\n8. Provide brief neutral explanations citing key signals: threshold proximity in expected moves, momentum direction and magnitude, and age of reference price.\n9. For all question types, incorporate 7-day trend as a soft modifier to adjust base rate before short-term signals, improving context sensitivity.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791752894659,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Removed asymmetric downward momentum bias to correct systematic underprobability in rising price cases, lowered threshold for expected move adjustments to 0.5 from 1 to better capture plausible swings, tightened calibration range for improved confidence, and enhanced use of multi-interval momentum f","championBrier":0.3432104166666667,"challengerBrier":0.3501333333333334},{"n":48,"gen":47,"field":"tech","parent":45,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated monthly from recent outcomes: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~40%, wiki_attention ~25%, reflecting observed frequencies; adjust only with strong, consistent signals.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, require points and comments to exceed stronger, age-adjusted thresholds within first 90 minutes: points > max(20, age_minutes/3), comments > max(10, age_minutes/8) to increase forecast substantially; otherwise keep near base rate.\n3. For hf_trending, incorporate multiple engagement metrics (rank ≤ 10, likes, downloads, trending_score, and score_gap_to_11th) using a weighted composite score; require strong convergence of all signals to maintain high forecasts; downgrade sharply if rank ≤10 but engagement is weak or model age > 14 days.\n4. For wiki_attention, heavily weight recent day-over-day percent change in views and rank movement; require sustained upward momentum across multiple days to raise forecast above base rate; penalize large prior-day spikes without follow-through.\n5. Delay downward adjustments for hn100 and hn300 until at least 90 minutes have passed with engagement below thresholds: points < 10 and comments < 5; before that, maintain base rate or mild adjustment.\n6. Apply domain credibility boosts only when early momentum is strong and consistent; unknown or niche domains require at least 1.5× higher engagement thresholds to raise forecast.\n7. For older stories (>120 minutes for hn100/hn300, >3 days for hf_trending), discount forecasts unless engagement metrics show clear continued growth.\n8. Calibrate forecasts downward when engagement signals conflict (e.g., high points with very low comments) or when signals show volatility without sustained momentum.\n9. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, and engagement to maintain calibration and avoid overconfidence.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791738493590,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased engagement thresholds and more nuanced multi-metric integration for hf_trending and wiki_attention address overconfidence and false positives seen in the worst misses; stronger use of momentum and domain credibility improves early signal reliability; overall calibration tightened to reduce","championBrier":0.13610208333333332,"challengerBrier":0.13650416666666662},{"n":48,"gen":46,"field":"sports","parent":41,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use sport- and season-stage-specific base rates: home team win probabilities of 54% for NFL, NBA, NHL regular season; 60% for college football; adjust for preseason and early season by reducing confidence by 10% to account for volatility.\n2. Weight team quality using ELO or power rankings with 60% weight on last 5 games and 40% on full season, emphasizing recent form more to capture momentum.\n3. Incorporate key situational factors: injuries, rest, roster changes; apply larger adjustments in preseason and early season; discount injury impact if no recent games played.\n4. For runline/spread forecasts, require consistent recent margins exceeding the spread in at least 70% of last 5 games before raising probabilities above 0.6.\n5. For totals, combine pace-of-play and offensive/defensive efficiency metrics over last 5 games, but also incorporate opponent defensive/offensive strengths and venue effects; adjust totals probabilities upwards when weather or venue historically increases scoring.\n6. Maintain probability floors and ceilings at 0.25 and 0.75 for regular season; allow wider ranges (0.15 to 0.85) in postseason and playoffs when evidence is strong.\n7. For MLS and other leagues with less consistent data, incorporate head-to-head historical averages and recent scoring trends more heavily.\n8. Calibrate low-probability forecasts for strong favorites in NHL and MLB postseason to minimum 0.4 to reduce underestimation.\n9. Provide concise explanations focusing on base rate, recent form weighted more heavily, venue, and key situational changes.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791709694510,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Shifted to heavier weighting on recent performance and season stage to better capture volatility especially in preseason; tightened runline/spread criteria for higher confidence; expanded total forecasts to include opponent defense and venue effects; adjusted probability floors/ceilings contextually","championBrier":0.24950833333333333,"challengerBrier":0.24822083333333336},{"n":48,"gen":45,"field":"tech","parent":42,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated monthly from recent outcomes: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, reflecting stable long-term rates; adjust only with strong momentum signals.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, require both points and comments to exceed dynamic thresholds relative to story age: points > max(15, age_minutes/4) and comments > max(5, age_minutes/10) within first 90 minutes to increase forecast substantially.\n3. Delay sharp downward adjustments until at least 90 minutes have passed with engagement below thresholds: points < 8 and comments < 4; before that, maintain base rate or mild adjustment.\n4. Incorporate front-page rank for hn300 only when combined with strong momentum: rank 1-5 boosts forecast moderately if points > 40 and comments > 20; ranks > 10 reduce forecast only if engagement is weak.\n5. Apply domain credibility boosts only when early momentum is strong and consistent; unknown or niche domains need higher engagement thresholds to raise forecast.\n6. Use comment-to-point ratio > 0.25 as a positive signal only if points exceed 20 to avoid sparse comment over-weighting.\n7. For older stories (>120 minutes), discount forecasts unless points and comments continue to grow steadily; avoid overly optimistic forecasts based on stale metrics.\n8. Calibrate forecasts downward when engagement signals conflict (e.g., high points with very low comments) or age exceeds question-specific windows.\n9. Regularly recalibrate using segmented Brier score analysis by question type, story age, and engagement to maintain calibration and avoid overconfidence.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791691691463,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted dynamic engagement thresholds based on story age and combined points/comments better captured momentum; delayed harsh penalties to avoid premature low forecasts; refined domain and rank signals to require stronger evidence; mitigated miscalibration from sparse comments and stale data, impro","championBrier":0.13810416666666664,"challengerBrier":0.08793541666666665},{"n":48,"gen":44,"field":"markets","parent":40,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use base rates for each question type as starting points, but update whenever recent signals exceed half an expected move (volatility × sqrt(time)) to enhance responsiveness.\n2. For price threshold questions, measure threshold distance in expected moves; shift probabilities only if threshold lies beyond ±0.5 expected moves to better capture near-threshold dynamics.\n3. Incorporate momentum symmetrically: adjust probabilities upward or downward proportionally to >1% moves in the last 6 hours, removing asymmetric downside bias to prevent underestimation of positive momentum.\n4. Always rely on the freshest available real-time reference price within 1 hour; if stale, apply a mild uncertainty penalty rather than ignoring it outright.\n5. For event/deadline markets, maintain status quo bias but scale down probability adjustments as expiration nears and unresolved events persist.\n6. For Treasury yield forecasts, require momentum sustained over at least 12 hours and exceeding 2 basis points before adjusting probabilities, reducing noise influence.\n7. Calibrate all probabilities within a 5%-95% range, allowing more confident moves when signals are strong yet avoiding extremes.\n8. Provide concise, neutral explanations citing key signals: momentum magnitude and direction, threshold distance in expected moves, reference price freshness, and time to resolution.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791670094893,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Adjusted threshold sensitivity to ±0.5 expected moves and symmetric momentum treatment address systematic underforecasting of positive outcomes, especially in btc_day; refreshing reference price handling balances data freshness and uncertainty; Treasury yield signal duration extended to reduce noise","championBrier":0.3910395833333333,"challengerBrier":0.42351041666666656},{"n":48,"gen":43,"field":"sports","parent":41,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with updated league-specific base rates reflecting recent data: home team win probabilities at 55% for NFL, NBA, NHL; 54% for MLB; 62% for College football; runline/spread/total outcomes near 50% unless strong signals indicate otherwise.\n2. Adjust probabilities using ELO or power rankings weighted 60% on recent 5 games and 40% on full season to better capture current form, with home advantage boosts per league calibrated between 3-5%.\n3. Increase emphasis on recent team performance and margin trends especially for runline and spread questions; require consistent recent double-margin wins for margin forecasts above 0.4.\n4. Incorporate situational factors (injuries, roster changes, rest) with stronger weight in early and mid-season, but moderate adjustments in preseason to avoid overfitting sparse data.\n5. For postseason and strong favorites, enforce minimum probability floors of 0.4 to reduce underestimation, especially in NHL, MLB, and NFL.\n6. For totals, integrate pace, offensive/defensive efficiency over last 5 games with venue and pace trend adjustments, but reduce confidence in preseason and early season totals.\n7. Allow probabilities to span wider ranges (0.15 to 0.85) where evidence is strong, avoiding excessive conservatism that impairs calibration.\n8. Provide concise explanations highlighting base rate, recent form, venue, key injuries, and margin trends to clarify dominant signals.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791662899794,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased weighting on recent short-term performance and margin trends improved runline/spread calibration; adjusted base rates upward for home wins improved NFL/NHL/MLB forecasts; wider probability ranges address over-conservatism causing misses on strong favorites and clear outcomes.","championBrier":0.2798354166666667,"challengerBrier":0.28506875000000004},{"n":48,"gen":42,"field":"tech","parent":29,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates updated with recent data: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~10%, hf_trending ~45% reflecting top10 volatility, wiki_attention ~25% due to frequent drop-offs.\n2. For hn100 and hn300, weight early momentum heavily within first 60 minutes: points and comments above thresholds (points>15 or comments>10) increase forecast substantially; beyond 90 minutes with low engagement (<8 points, <4 comments), reduce forecast sharply.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with diminishing returns: rank 1-5 add moderate boost; ranks >10 reduce confidence; very high points (>70) and comments (>50) can override rank penalties.\n4. Adjust upward for domain credibility only when supported by early momentum; unknown/niche domains get no boost unless points and comments exceed moderate thresholds.\n5. For hf_trending, incorporate rank stability over last 3 days, not just current rank; emphasize trending_score gap to 11th place but discount forecasts >70% for models older than 7 days even if popular.\n6. For wiki_attention, rely on multi-day view trends (3+ days) and recent percentile rank changes; steep single-day spikes without sustained growth reduce forecasts below base rate.\n7. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.25 as a positive signal only if total points >10; cap boost to prevent overweighting sparse comments.\n8. Calibrate all forecasts downward when signals are inconsistent or sparse, especially for stories/models older than question-specific time windows.\n9. Regularly recalibrate forecasts against historical Brier scores segmented by question type, age buckets, and engagement levels to avoid overconfidence.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791644894838,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Reduced base rates for hf_trending and wiki_attention reflect observed overconfidence; added multi-day trend checks and age limits improve timing sensitivity; stricter early engagement thresholds and tempered domain boosts reduce misses on slow starters and niche sources; incorporating rank stabilit","championBrier":0.1638875,"challengerBrier":0.15509166666666668},{"n":48,"gen":41,"field":"sports","parent":31,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with league-specific base rates: home team win probabilities around 54% for NFL, NBA, and NHL; 53% for MLB; 60% for college football; runline/spread/total outcomes near 50% unless strong signals dictate otherwise.\n2. Adjust probabilities by team quality using ELO ratings or power rankings weighted 70% on recent 10 games and 30% on full season, with a home advantage boost calibrated per league (e.g., +3% for NHL, +4% NBA).\n3. Incorporate situational factors: injuries to key players, roster changes, and rest days, applying stronger adjustments in early season and preseason.\n4. For runline and spread questions, emphasize recent margins of victory and favorite win consistency, increasing margin forecasts only if favorite’s recent games show consistent double-margin wins and home advantage.\n5. Calibrate low-probability forecasts (<40%) by raising baseline for strong favorites in postseason NHL and MLB to at least 0.35, reducing underestimation of favorites.\n6. For totals, use pace-of-play, offensive and defensive efficiency metrics averaged over last 5 games, adjusting for venue and pace trends.\n7. Avoid forecasts below 0.2 or above 0.8 unless overwhelming evidence exists; maintain most probabilities between 0.3 and 0.7 for better calibration.\n8. Provide concise explanations highlighting dominant signals: base rate, recent performance, venue, and key injuries or changes.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791608895375,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Improved calibration of base rates per league and stronger weighting on recent performance, with better handling of runline/spread margins and postseason favorites, addresses underestimation of favorites and extreme probabilities seen in misses.","championBrier":0.24558125000000006,"challengerBrier":0.2373833333333334},{"n":48,"gen":40,"field":"markets","parent":33,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with the base rate for each question type, updating only when strong, recent signals exceed typical noise thresholds.\n2. For price threshold questions, calculate distance to threshold in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and shift probabilities significantly only if threshold lies beyond ±1 expected move.\n3. Incorporate short-term momentum signals (>1% change in last 6 hours) asymmetrically: downward momentum reduces probability more strongly than upward momentum raises it, reflecting observed downside bias.\n4. Always use the freshest real-time reference price available (intraday fix within 1 hour); avoid stale previous closes especially >2 hours old.\n5. For event/deadline markets, reduce probability near expiration if event remains unresolved, preserving status quo bias.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, require sustained short-term momentum beyond normal volatility before adjusting forecasts.\n7. Calibrate probabilities within a 10%-90% range to avoid overconfidence, leaning toward conservatism when signals are weak or mixed.\n8. Explain each forecast neutrally in one sentence citing key signals including momentum direction, threshold proximity in expected moves, and reference price freshness.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791601735432,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"The revision improves calibration by emphasizing the freshness of reference prices, applying asymmetric momentum adjustments to better capture downside moves, and requiring stronger signals before deviating from base rates, addressing consistent underestimation of positive outcomes and overconfidenc","championBrier":0.41158749999999994,"challengerBrier":0.3748666666666666},{"n":48,"gen":39,"field":"tech","parent":29,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates calibrated to historical outcomes: hn100 base rate near 20%; hn300 lower near 8%, reflecting front-page difficulty and longer time to accumulate points.\n2. Weight early momentum (points and comments) heavily within the first 60 minutes, but avoid sharp cutoff penalties after 90 minutes; instead, apply a gradually decaying multiplier to forecasts for low engagement to reduce false negatives.\n3. Incorporate front-page rank for hn300 with a nuanced boost: ranks 1-5 get strong positive adjustment, ranks 6-10 moderate boost, ranks >10 neutral or slight negative due to less visibility.\n4. Adjust upward for early momentum thresholds but lower the threshold for moderate boosts (e.g., >15 points or >10 comments at 90 minutes) to better capture slower-building stories that eventually reach high points.\n5. Use domain credibility as a moderate multiplier (~10-15%), but reduce penalty on unknown domains when early momentum is moderate to capture emerging or niche stories.\n6. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.25 as a positive engagement quality signal, capped to avoid overweighting; also consider absolute comment counts to avoid overrating very sparse comments.\n7. For all forecasts, recalibrate probabilities against historical Brier scores by momentum buckets to avoid overconfidence, especially for high forecasts without sustained momentum.\n8. Incorporate time-normalized momentum (points and comments per minute) for more sensitive scaling rather than absolute counts alone.\n9. For stories older than 120 minutes without strong momentum (>20 points), reduce forecast moderately but avoid severe discounting to capture slower trends.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791598095576,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"We softened harsh cutoffs on low early engagement and lowered thresholds for upward adjustments to better capture stories with slower but eventual strong momentum, while refining front-page rank effects and domain multipliers to improve calibration and reduce false negatives.","championBrier":0.08801666666666665,"challengerBrier":0.09352916666666666},{"n":48,"gen":38,"field":"sports","parent":31,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with league-specific base rates: home teams win about 55% in NHL and MLB, around 53% in NBA, and 60% in College football; draw probabilities in soccer centered near 30%. For runline/spread/total questions, use historical frequencies adjusted by league and season phase.\n2. Incorporate team quality via composite metrics including recent performance, opponent strength, and margin trends, adjusting for home advantage, neutral site, and venue-specific effects.\n3. For runline and spread bets, emphasize recent performance margin and favorite’s historical ability to cover, weighting postseason and late-season data more heavily.\n4. Adjust preseason and early-season forecasts strongly toward base rates unless roster changes, injuries, or coaching changes materially alter team strength.\n5. Calibrate low-probability forecasts conservatively, especially for favorites in NHL and MLB postseason, by increasing their forecast probabilities by 5-10 percentage points to reduce underestimation.\n6. For totals, integrate pace-of-play, recent offensive/defensive efficiency, weather/venue conditions, and adjust more dynamically as season progresses.\n7. For soccer draws, increase baseline when teams have similar strength and recent low scoring or balanced results; consider league scoring trends.\n8. Avoid extreme certainty outside strong data; maintain forecast probabilities generally between 0.35 and 0.65, narrowing only with high confidence.\n9. Provide concise explanations stressing key drivers: team strength, recent trends, venue effects, and uncertainty factors.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791558522821,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"The revision strengthens base rates by league and phase, adjusts preseason forecasts more toward base rates unless clear signals exist, and lifts low-probability forecasts for favorites to reduce underestimation; total score forecasts now integrate more dynamic pace and defensive metrics, improving ","championBrier":0.24661041666666675,"challengerBrier":0.2517437500000001},{"n":48,"gen":37,"field":"markets","parent":33,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with the question type base rate and adjust only when recent, strong signals exist, avoiding adjustments for weak or ambiguous data.\n2. For price threshold questions, convert threshold distance to expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)) and assign probabilities near 50% when within 0.5 expected moves, increasing confidence only beyond 1 expected move.\n3. Use the most recent and relevant intraday price data (prefer latest hourly fix within 1 hour), avoiding stale reference prices older than 2 hours.\n4. Incorporate short-term momentum only if exceeding ±2% over the last 6 hours; otherwise, treat momentum as noise and do not adjust probabilities.\n5. For event-driven markets near expiration, reduce probability adjustments unless strong directional data exists, reflecting status quo bias.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, integrate multi-day trends and volatility; only adjust forecasts when recent changes exceed typical noise thresholds.\n7. Cap forecast probabilities between 10% and 90% to prevent overconfidence, but allow tighter intervals (e.g., 20%-80%) when signals are weak or ambiguous.\n8. Provide concise, neutral explanations citing key quantitative signals supporting the forecast.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791554935174,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Sharpened volatility thresholds and momentum cutoffs prevent over-adjusting near tight price thresholds; stricter use of recent price data corrects stale reference errors; tighter probability caps reduce overconfidence seen in misses, improving overall calibration.","championBrier":0.23780833333333337,"challengerBrier":0.23919999999999997},{"n":48,"gen":36,"field":"tech","parent":29,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use updated question-type base rates: hn100 base rate ~22% reflecting higher than previously estimated chance; hn300 base rate ~10% acknowledging front-page difficulty but slightly higher than before; hf_trending base rates adjusted dynamically with stability but start near 55% for consistent top 10 presence.\n2. Weight early momentum more flexibly by age: points and comments within first 90 minutes carry predictive power; instead of sharp reductions after 90 minutes, apply graduated damping unless engagement is near zero (<3 points and <2 comments).\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with graduated scaling: ranks 1-5 get strong positive boost; ranks 6-10 moderate boost; ranks >10 reduce forecast but less sharply than before.\n4. Adjust forecasts upward for moderate early signals: points >15 or comments >10 within first 90 minutes raise probability above 50% (not only >30 points as before), enabling earlier recognition of momentum.\n5. Use domain credibility as a calibrated multiplier: well-known, reputable domains increase forecasts by ~10%, unknown domains require at least moderate momentum (points ≥10) to exceed base rate.\n6. For hf_trending, emphasize trending score gap to 11th place, downloads, likes normalized by model age; stable top 5 ranks with positive momentum should forecast ≥60%; reduce forecast only if momentum stalls or rank drops.\n7. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.2 as positive engagement quality signal with a capped boost to avoid overweighting sparse comments.\n8. Regularly recalibrate forecasts against historical Brier scores per question type and momentum bucket; explicitly reduce confidence when signals are inconsistent, engagement is sparse, or age is high without growth.\n9. Incorporate early momentum even at low absolute point counts if the story is young (<60 minutes) and domain is credible, to avoid underforecasting fast risers.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791551306110,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Raised base rates and lowered thresholds for momentum signals capture early strong performers previously underforecasted; softened age and rank penalties prevent premature discounting; refined domain and engagement multipliers improve calibration and responsiveness to moderate early signals, address","championBrier":0.12348750000000004,"challengerBrier":0.13783125000000002},{"n":48,"gen":35,"field":"sports","parent":31,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with league- and question-specific base rates: home ML wins near 52-55%, draws in soccer ~25%, runline/spread/total questions ~50%, adjusted by historical event frequencies per league and question type.\n2. Incorporate team quality, recent performance, and venue effects; weigh recent performance more heavily in-season but moderate early-season volatility with stronger reversion to base rates.\n3. For runline/spread bets, emphasize favorites' historical margin achievement rates, especially in NHL and MLB postseason, adjusting upward for favorites with strong records and home advantage.\n4. For total score questions, integrate pace-of-play, offensive/defensive metrics, and recent scoring trends of both teams, plus league scoring environment; adjust cautiously for preseason and early season.\n5. Calibrate low forecast probabilities (<40%) carefully to avoid underestimating favorites' chances, particularly in NHL and MLB postseason runline/spread bets.\n6. For soccer draws, start near 25%, increase with balanced team strength, recent low-scoring matches, and league-specific draw frequencies.\n7. Limit extreme certainty; keep most probabilities between 0.35 and 0.65 unless strong, multi-factor evidence supports otherwise.\n8. Adjust forecasts for known roster changes and injuries with documented impact, applying stronger weight late in the season.\n9. Provide concise neutral explanations highlighting key data drivers, including base rates, team form, venue, and situational factors.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791511701926,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"The revised doctrine tightens base rate use with question- and league-specific historical frequencies, better calibrates low probabilities to reduce underestimation of favorites, especially in postseason NHL/MLB runline/spread bets, and strengthens total and runline forecasts by incorporating margin","championBrier":0.26598541666666664,"challengerBrier":0.2698979166666667},{"n":48,"gen":34,"field":"tech","parent":29,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use refined question-type-specific base rates: hn100 near 20%, hn300 lower at ~7% reflecting front-page difficulty, hf_trending around 45% based on top10 stability and recent volatility.\n2. Weight early momentum dynamically by age and absolute engagement: within first 60 minutes, points and comments strongly predict; after 90 minutes, low engagement (<15 points and <5 comments) sharply reduces forecast for hn100 and hn300.\n3. Incorporate front-page rank for hn300 more granularly: ranks 1-5 get strong positive boost; ranks 6-10 moderate boost; ranks >10 reduce confidence.\n4. Adjust upward for exceptional early signals with higher thresholds: points>25 or comments>15 in first 90 minutes raise probability above 60% for hn100 and hn300; also consider rapid recent acceleration in engagement.\n5. Use domain credibility as a calibrated multiplier: reputable domains add ~10% increase; unknown or niche domains require proportionally stronger momentum (e.g., 1.5x points threshold) to overcome base rate.\n6. For hf_trending, emphasize both trending score gap to 11th place and normalized engagement metrics (downloads, likes per day), with decay for models older than 30 days; maintain >50% forecast only if momentum is stable or increasing.\n7. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.3 as a positive quality signal but cap boost at +5% and discount if absolute comments <5 to avoid overweighting sparse comments.\n8. Explicitly incorporate momentum consistency: if points and comments growth rates conflict or stagnate over last 30 minutes, reduce forecast by 10-20%.\n9. Calibrate forecasts continuously against historical Brier scores per question type and momentum bucket; avoid overconfidence by lowering forecasts when signals are inconsistent, engagement is sparse, or domain credibility is low.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791504495197,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased thresholds for early momentum and more granular front-page rank use address underestimation of rising stories; stronger weighting on momentum consistency and domain credibility reduce false positives; refined hf_trending criteria better capture model popularity dynamics; overall calibratio","championBrier":0.07348958333333333,"challengerBrier":0.12153541666666669},{"n":48,"gen":33,"field":"markets","parent":20,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Start with the base rate for the question type; adjust only with strong, recent data signals.\n2. For price threshold questions, measure threshold distance in expected moves (volatility × sqrt(time remaining)); probabilities near 50% when threshold is within one expected move.\n3. Incorporate short-term momentum signals cautiously: slight positive momentum (>1% in last 6 hours) warrants mild upward adjustment; otherwise, do not extrapolate.\n4. Use real-time reference prices—prefer the latest intraday fix over previous close when available and recent (within 1 hour).\n5. For event and deadline-driven markets, assign lower probabilities near expiration if the event has not yet occurred, reflecting status quo bias.\n6. For Treasury yield questions, consider recent yield trends and volatility; adjust forecasts only if short-term momentum exceeds typical noise.\n7. Calibrate forecasts to avoid overconfidence: restrict forecasts to 10%-90%, aiming for accurate Brier scores.\n8. Always explain forecasts neutrally in one sentence, citing key signals.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791497311099,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased reliance on freshest intraday data and volatility-adjusted expected moves improves calibration, especially for S&P 500 thresholds; cautious use of momentum corrects underestimation of probable moves; stricter probability bounds reduce overconfidence noted in missed YES outcomes.","championBrier":0.16150208333333335,"challengerBrier":0.1502604166666667},{"n":48,"gen":32,"field":"tech","parent":29,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates: hn100 ~20%, hn300 ~8%, hf_trending base near 50%, adjusted dynamically by recent top10 churn; wiki_attention base ~30%.\n2. Weight early momentum with finer granularity: points and comments within first 45 minutes are most predictive; for age > 60 minutes with under 10 points, increase forecast moderately if points >7, even with low comments, reflecting misses on underestimated early momentum.\n3. For hn300, incorporate front-page rank with graduated boosts: top 3 ranks +30%, ranks 4-10 +15%, ranks >10 neutral or negative; also consider absolute points and comments combined for momentum.\n4. Adjust sharply upward for strong early signals: if points >20 or comments >10 within first 90 minutes, forecast >60% for hn100 and hn300; for borderline momentum (points 7-20, comments 2-10), increase forecast by 10-20% rather than minimal.\n5. Use domain credibility as a moderate multiplier (10-15%), but lower threshold for reputable domains with consistent momentum; for top domains with early signals, raise forecast more aggressively.\n6. For hf_trending, emphasize trending score gap to 11th, downloads, likes normalized by model age, and recent rank stability; boost forecast if trending score gap >50 and rank stable for 3+ days.\n7. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.3 as a positive engagement quality signal but cap its influence; prioritize absolute momentum over ratio when comments are sparse.\n8. Avoid underweighting early moderate momentum in older stories: increase forecast when points exceed 7 even if comments are low past 60 minutes.\n9. Calibrate forecasts continuously using historical Brier scores per question type and momentum bucket, reducing overconfidence when signals conflict or sparse but increasing forecasts when early signals moderately exceed thresholds.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791457704264,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased sensitivity to moderate early momentum and better graduated rank and domain effects address underforecasting of stories with moderate points but low comments, improving calibration especially for hn100 and hn300 question types.","championBrier":0.13748541666666667,"challengerBrier":0.15137916666666673},{"n":48,"gen":31,"field":"sports","parent":22,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use base rates as starting points: home teams win slightly over 50% in most leagues; runline/spread/total questions are close to 50% unless strong data indicates otherwise.\n2. Incorporate team quality and recent performance differentials, adjusting for home advantage and venue (neutral or not).\n3. For runline and spread bets, give more weight to current season performance and recent margins, especially when favorites have strong winning records and home field advantage.\n4. Adjust early-season and preseason forecasts toward base rates more moderately, but include visible roster changes or injuries to refine estimates.\n5. Tighten calibration for low-probability forecasts (<40%) when the favorite has a good record, especially in NHL and MLB postseason games, to reduce underestimation of favorites' chances.\n6. For soccer draws, maintain a baseline around 25%, increasing when teams have similar strength and recent low-scoring trends.\n7. Use total score forecasts with attention to pace-of-play trends and defensive/offensive metrics of both teams in recent games.\n8. Avoid extreme certainty; probabilities between 0.3 and 0.7 should be used liberally with proper calibration.\n9. Always provide a concise neutral explanation reflecting key data points influencing the forecast.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791454109462,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased weighting on favorites' recent form and home advantage in runline/spread questions, plus more nuanced preseason and postseason handling, reduces underestimation of likely outcomes and improves calibration across low-probability forecasts.","championBrier":0.2740833333333334,"challengerBrier":0.2640458333333334},{"n":48,"gen":30,"field":"markets","parent":20,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Begin with the base rate per question type, adjusting only for strong, recent, and relevant data.\n2. For price thresholds, measure threshold distance from the latest reference price in units of expected moves over the time remaining; thresholds within 0.3 typical moves indicate near 50% probability.\n3. Incorporate short-term momentum only when supported by sustained, multi-hour trends; avoid overreacting to recent small moves.\n4. Use the freshest and most relevant price reference available (e.g., intraday fix rather than previous close) for calibration.\n5. Scheduled macro releases tend to produce moves centered near consensus; consider the threshold’s position relative to expected release outcomes.\n6. For event markets, account for deadlines and resolution rules; probability should decrease as the event nears if the event hasn't occurred.\n7. Calibrate probabilities to reflect realistic uncertainty, targeting well-calibrated Brier scores.\n8. Explicitly incorporate volatility and expected move magnitude into probability adjustments, especially when thresholds are close to current prices.\n9. Always explain forecasts succinctly, leveraging updated signals and base rates.","promoted":false,"createdAt":1791450514866,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"Increased calibration accuracy by tightening threshold distance interpretation from 0.5 to 0.3 typical moves for near-flip probabilities; emphasized using freshest price references to avoid stale biases; restrained short-term momentum effect unless persistent; clarified event market deadline impact;","championBrier":0.1768375,"challengerBrier":0.1799729166666667},{"n":48,"gen":29,"field":"tech","parent":13,"champion":false,"doctrine":"1. Use question-type-specific base rates: for hn100, start near 19%; hn300 base rate is lower (~8%) due to front-page difficulty; hf_trending base rates depend on current top10 stability (~50%); wiki_attention base rate around 30% for view increases.\n2. Weight early momentum by age: points and comments within first 60 minutes carry more predictive power; if age > 90 minutes with low engagement (<10 points, <5 comments), reduce forecast substantially.\n3. Incorporate front-page rank for hn300: top 5 ranks get strong positive boost, ranks >10 reduce confidence.\n4. Adjust sharply upward for exceptional early signals: points>30 or comments>20 in first 90 minutes should push probability above 60% for hn100 and hn300.\n5. Use domain credibility as a moderate multiplier: well-known, reputable domains raise forecasts by ~10-15%; unknown or niche domains require stronger early momentum to overcome base rate.\n6. For hf_trending, emphasize trending score gap to 11th place, downloads, and likes normalized by age; models with stable high rank and positive momentum maintain >50% forecast.\n7. For wiki_attention, factor in recent view trends and rank; articles with steep recent drops get forecasts <15%, while those with steady or rising views get 40%+.\n8. Use comment-to-point ratio >0.3 as a positive engagement quality signal but cap its boost to avoid overweighting sparse comments.\n9. Avoid overconfidence by calibrating forecasts against historical Brier scores per question type and momentum bucket; explicitly lower forecasts when signals are inconsistent or sparse.","promoted":true,"createdAt":1791410901038,"ideasFrom":[],"rationale":"This revision adds question-type-specific base rates and stronger weighting of age-relative momentum, incorporates front-page rank for hn300, and better calibrates forecasts with sharper thresholds and domain credibility multipliers; it improves calibration and addresses underestimation of some true","championBrier":0.11855624999999999,"challengerBrier":0.10777291666666666}]}